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The coronavirus epidemic has been linked to a higher level in the last week. The number of registered cases is increasing significantly in almost every country in the Northern Hemisphere, and Europe (and our region in particular) has once again become a focal point. The daily number of new infections in most European countries is already well above the data from the first spring wave.
How was the map made?
Using country-level data from the Johns Hopkins University database, we analyzed the number of infections recorded over the past week. We compare this with the situation a month ago and plot the percentage change on the map. The greater the increase, the stronger the orange hue of the country, the greater the decrease, the greener. In countries with a low number of infections, there can be large positive and negative changes as a percentage, so we adjust the color scale by marking the country with the strongest color at 30%. It is important to emphasize that the map does not represent the general situation of the epidemic on an absolute scale, but the change in the individual situation of each country compared to its own situation a month earlier.
Based on these, it may seem strange at first why countries are not closing in the same way they did in the spring. The graphic below explains this, although it raises several new questions. One of the most reliable epidemiological data is the “mortality surplus” statistics, which regardless of coronavirus testing practice, detection success, definitional discrepancies, etc. – shows how the number of deaths in a country differs from the average of a similar period in previous years. Based on this, we can consider that the epidemic requires a great sacrifice where mortality jumps significantly compared to the usual demographic processes.
In the graph, we select a few countries where the second wave clearly produced more infections than the first. It is clear that the excess mortality was much higher in spring than in autumn so far. In other words, although there are many more infections, the damage measured by the epidemic in terms of death is still much lower. Therefore, it is understandable that politicians refrain from taking drastic closure steps that, through economic damage, also mean long-term measurable losses in life years. (Due to the large economic losses of the first wave, the general opinion is that the spring austerity was excessive anyway.)
But why is the epidemic so different? There are several explanations, but so far none seem perfect, or at least self-explanatory.
- At the end of the summer, it was a general assessment that the epidemic among mobile youth had not affected the older age group. As the virus spread to groups with lower health risks, the rate of severe cases may have been lower as well. However, this explanation, even if not completely ruled out, seems weaker only in mid-October (the Florida effect is already working). In Spain, for example, despite the severe epidemic, the mortality surplus was only 15%, to 150% at the peak of the first wave. Additionally, there has been a decline in recent weeks, suggesting that the slight slowdown is already accompanied by a decline in the number of deaths.
- Of course, it is conceivable that the mortality statistics are subsequently corrected upwards (this is a general experience) and this will refine the picture, but the mortality figures will no longer be able to rise so much that the mortality surplus is not substantially lower. than in the first wave.
- Statistics of excess mortality are, by their very nature, late in following the course of the epidemic. Therefore, in many countries, it is not possible for the number of deaths to increase. According to the data, Hungary can unfortunately also be such a country, where the number of serious cases is increasing dynamically. (And by the way, it has already surpassed the numbers of the first wave. At the same time, it is still very low: in Hungary there is no surplus of deaths from the coronavirus epidemic).
- It is also conceivable that in the second wave, more countries detect cases more effectively, so in fact, the epidemic is not much larger than the cases suggest. This opinion was more pronounced in Germany, but in other countries, where the effectiveness of recognition appears to have deteriorated more, this explanatory factor may be less strong.
- A much more encouraging explanation may be that there are more effective treatments for the coronavirus, and thus mortality from the epidemic has decreased as a result.
- Just as it is an optimistic possibility that due to better detection, infected people can be detected earlier, so that their cure can begin earlier.
- For now, it is only a hypothetical hypothesis, but logically it cannot be ruled out that a milder version of the coronavirus has developed, which does not cause such serious complications.
An exact explanation for the lower mortality surplus in the second wave is still lacking, the picture can be clarified with the figures for the coming weeks. For the moment, we can say that although the infection data seems frightening, the mortality statistics show minor losses in the second wave. But of course that does not mean that everything remains this way.
Cover image: Getty Images
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