It would go even higher on the epidemic curve, but it can’t because it doesn’t add enough laboratory capacity. Less serious cases can no longer be identified, says the leader of the working group of the infectology monitoring team of the Ministry of Innovation and Technology.

Coronavirus: the second wave

Half a year after the spring outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the second wave of the pandemic has arrived. The radical increase in the number of infected is forcing more and more countries to re-impose restrictions, despite the fact that the world economy has not even recovered from the effects of the spring outbreak. According to the signs, the second wave also reached Hungary. Follow our news!

“In recent weeks, we have seen that the number of tests has not kept pace with the increase in cases, the proportion of positive tests has been increasing. This means that

the number of cases reported daily can no longer provide adequate guidance on the true trend of the epidemic “

– stated Gergely Röst, a mathematician at the University of Szeged at the InfoRádió Arena, who was a co-host of Beatrix Oroszi, a medical epidemiologist and leader of the working group of the infectious monitoring team of the Ministry of Innovation and Technology.

Röst explained that if the proportion of positive cases per day increases with the same number of tests, it can be concluded that more and more people are infected, but not to what extent, because the two things are not clearly related. He also gave an illustrative example: if 10 percent of the 8,000 tests performed in one day, or 800, were positive, it is not possible to say whether even if 2,000 tests were performed, the same proportion would be found to be infected. If the first 8,000 samples cover all highly probable cases, then none of the next 2,000 samples will be positive. But it could even be that there was exactly the same or even a higher proportion of positive cases.

In response to this, Russia said there is a misconception that there are more positive cases because more tests are done. This would only be true, he explained, if the positivity rate decreased accordingly.

“The problem is that if the number of cases actually increases so that we cannot detect with the tests, then the limit of the tests, the upper limit, will also determine the number of all existing infections that we can detect. Our data underscores that we cannot detect all cases with our current testing capacity, only part of it.

So, that epidemic curve would go even higher, but it is not, because the base is the number of cases confirmed by laboratory tests, and the bottleneck is how many tests we can perform in Hungary in a week or a day. So it’s not because our epidemic isn’t progressing, it’s because our testing capacity has reached its upper limit. “

The current data can no longer show an increase,

The number of cases ranges from 800 to 1200, more than it cannot be, precisely because more laboratory test results cannot be produced in one day.

What we see in the epidemic curve is that the age distribution of those affected is changing. “In other words, the more we see in the epidemic curve that the mean age of the identified patients is increasing, the more we see that the diseases can no longer be identified. less serious cases, only the most serious.

Unfortunately, it also follows from this change that we will see an increase in the number of serious cases in the coming days. “


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66 patients with coronavirus in a nursing home in Nógrád, no one told their family


hvg.hu
At home

According to RTL Híradó, in addition to the care, dozens of workers were also infected in Bátonyterenye. They know that the epidemic also appeared in a nursing home in Somogy.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also keeps smaller epidemiological purchases secret.


hvg.hu
Company

The ministry headed by Péter Szijjártó has not yet revealed how much it bought masks and other protective equipment.