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In a summary article, we dealt with the fact that there will be a joint opposition program, but even the parties do not know who will write, the preparatory work is being carried out in parallel in the different workshops. For example, the Opposition Cooperation (ELEGY), which was formed earlier this year on Thursday, announced at a press conference that commissions would be established to produce background material that would form the basis of a government program.
Anti-Orbán and voters keep the opposition united
The electoral programs are published between a few months and a month before the elections, that is, the opposition is not late
– said Attila Tibor Nagy, Equity’s political analyst, on the Index issue.
According to the analyst, the distances of ideological content between opposition parties have decreased in recent years.
Jobbik is no longer on the far right, making him suitable for other opposition parties.
He declared.
The parties are now held together by anti-Orbán and the will of the majority of opposition voters.
Photo: Attila Tibor Nagy, political analyst / Facebook
That is why Attila Tibor Nagy considers that the development of a joint program is a solvable task, if only because there are organizations in the background (such as ELEGY and V21) that can help with professional work. However, he also pointed out: there may be problems to overcome, differences in approach.
The LMP is still a bit skeptical about globalization and would prefer an eco-minded economy, and the party does not believe in the European United States, which is favored by the Democratic Coalition, notes the analyst.
However, according to Attila Tibor Nagy, DK is clearly pro-globalism, pro-capitalist and places great emphasis on strengthening the European Union, but has recently moved towards demanding wage increases. Regarding Jobbik, he pointed out that the party’s president, Péter Jakab, communicates with the commoner party, while almost nothing is about foreign policy issues, so the party
you can easily pass the terrain in this area to others.
The MSZP also speaks for the benefit of young people, retirees and employees, added the analyst, who also stated:
there are no insurmountable differences between programs.
When asked if the support of each party could influence the extent to which they could have a voice in the political work at the negotiating table, Tibor Attila Nagy said: if there are previous elections before the joint program is adopted, its results they can have an impact on the process.
“But it is not the programming that will be very difficult for the opposition, it is personal problems. Who should be on the common list if so? Who should be the candidate for joint prime minister? Who should be the local candidates? Of course, not the opinion of the smaller party will be the decisive factor in this process.
He also noted that the ideological content of such a joint opposition program has a compass, and this cannot be rid of it, since only the political content is “very difficult to communicate in an understandable and effective way to the electorate.”
Cooperative dissolution
According to András Pulai, strategic director of the Public Institute, a joint opposition program is a necessary but not sufficient condition for possible future governance. The institute’s September research, published in early October, found that
the “coalition vote” was formed.
In relation to this, Pulai said that it also shows that there are no substantial differences on policy issues within the opposition camp, the DK, the right, the socialist and the impulse think the same about the most important issues. There may still be open questions, but the opposition camp currently moves in a rather narrow ideological field.
“The opposition parties are not as separate as they seem in many ways. Inside the camp, the left moved a lot to the right and vice versa. The four key areas in which parties can define themselves are shared: education, health, democracy and the fight against corruption ”.
The analyst explained, who said that a potentially creative and fruitful programming process could start on the side of the opposition. He also spoke about the fact that a successful electoral result could be the beginning of an even more intense merger than before.
A process of popular celebration can begin in a non-Jobian sense that leads to the formation of a political community with a broad ideological spectrum, a “pro-republican” popular party.
András Pulai sees that at this moment the problem of the opposition camp is not that the individual actors are very different, but that they cannot be distinguished from one another, and this means identification problems. However, the solution at this point is that
the actors begin to converge with each other and then dissolve each other through some kind of cooperation.
The sooner the joint opposition program is completed, the more time the parties will have to make it known to the electorate. The Publicus Institute’s director of strategy said opposition actors would do well to put the joint program on the table a year before the elections, and the candidate selection process goes hand in hand.
If you don’t have two-thirds, the tricks may come
According to Attila Tibor Nagy, the opposition is already thinking about what they will do with the leaders who have taken positions in the Orbán system: the Attorney General, the President of the SAO, the President of the Media Authority or the GVH.
If they don’t have two-thirds, they’ll need legal tricks to eliminate those leaders.
He said great. These tricks include creating new institutions or renaming existing ones, as Fidesz did after 2010. The Supreme Court then became a mansion, the Data Protection Ombudsman into a data protection office, and the leaders first had to go.
But Fidesz had two thirds. If the current opposition parties do not rest close to Fidesz after the next elections and do not have a two-thirds majority, tough constitutional-political struggles can be expected ”.
The equity analyst cautions.
András Pulai, according to the equity analyst, also said that what should happen to the close Fidesz leaders appointed to head state institutions after an opposition government change is also an important question.
They can block the implementation of the opposition’s political program. They can launch processes that do not serve the political interests of the country, but rather the narrow political community that put them there.
– said the strategic director of the Publicus Institute. Added:
We have to start thinking about this and the opposition has to find solutions, even if they don’t necessarily have to do it in public. “
Top image: Opposition deputies will vote on the agenda in the extraordinary plenary session of the National Assembly on August 3, 2020. MTI / Tamás Kovács
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