Table of Contents – Foreign – US Presidential Elections Could Plunge into Chaos

In a presidential look: in a jacket, at a desk, sitting in front of folders, with the American flag behind him, Donald Trump registered with tens of millions of followers on Twitter from the hospital in a four-minute video.

The president testifies to this, including on Saturday local time, that he feels much better than when he was taken to Walter Reed Medical Center the day before with a coronavirus infection and will soon be back in full force.

I have to go back because we still have to work hard to make America great

Says the president on the tape, repeating his old campaign slogan.

However, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told US reporters not long ago that the president’s condition is cause for concern and that the next 48 hours will be critical.

On Saturday, the Index also wrote that Trump’s condition could be worse than reported and he is being treated with experimental drugs.

In any case, the treatment of the president, as well as the contagion of other prominent politicians, will greatly affect the political agenda this year:

• his campaign is suspended and the fate of the presidential candidates’ debates has become doubtful; expires on October 15. (His opponent, Joe Biden, has negative test scores at the moment, and they didn’t get close in the September debate, nor did they shake hands.)
• Senators have also been infected, so it is not known if they will be able to register Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s chief (conservative) judge, before the Nov. 3 election. If some Republican senators cannot vote, there is no majority for Barrett’s approval.

At the same time, speculation has intensified that the president could be incapacitated before his term expires on January 20, 2021, and that his succession must be secured under US constitutional law. The Index also wrote about this; the order of succession is as follows:

• Mike Pence Vice President (Republican)
• Nancy Pelosi President (Democrat)
• Charles Grassley, Senate Senior President (Republican)
• Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (Republican)

Emergency and even more dangerous scenarios

So if a president who is already in office can die or resign, even citing his health, the vice president will take his place, and the constitution is clear on that. This happened, for example, when Truman replaced the late Roosevelt, Johnson replaced Kennedy, who was shot to death, and Ford replaced Nixon, who had resigned.

But now it also emerged in the United States, what if Trump or Biden cannot run in the presidential election on November 3? Or do you know now, but between November 3 and the opening of January 20, “something will happen” to the winner?

The issue is even more current because, more than four weeks before the November elections, not only are the ballots in full swing, but the masses are already sending their votes by mail sent by mail, and in some states, citizens before the vote they have already voted in electoral districts. Who else but Trump, Biden (or one of the fringe presidential candidates …?)

Electoral emergency scenarios are chaotic because much depends on how individual federal states decide. The historical precedents are old, scarce and irrelevant: so far, the president has still won the elections.

The situation is complicated by the American electoral system. Simply put, it is not the majority of the votes cast that must be obtained, but the majority of the electricians in each state. Often this is not the same task.

All power – away from the people

1. According to the first scenario, something unexpected and inverse happens to one of the possible presidential candidates before November 3. Then the leadership of the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, according to its own rules, will decide who will be its new presidential candidate. That is, Vice President Mike Pence or (instead of Biden) Vice President candidate Kamala Harris can move forward, but it is not set in stone. Furthermore, the suffrage regulations of each state differ; this too can be chaos.
2. The second scenario assumes that this event will occur between November 3 and December 14, that is, when Americans have already voted but the electoral body has not yet met. If a loser leaves the scene, the situation is simple. If you are the winner, it is complicated. In this case, the political elite is forced to take some power away from the people, because after all, the people did not vote for who will be president, and the vice-presidential candidate of the winning couple is essential! – a candidate for vice president who has not yet been legally elected. In this scenario, it is up to the electorate to decide, but each state may have different legal provisions on what to do.
3. The third scenario comes into effect with the convocation of a newly composed congress on January 6, 2021, which will approve or not the electoral votes. If it does, the situation will be simpler: thereafter, the winner will be the president already elected until his inauguration on January 20.
4. If not, then – horribile dictu – you can even win the election! (But don’t put poison on it).

There is currently a Republican majority in the Senate and the Democratic House of Representatives in Congress. But that (especially the former) may change: Congressional elections will also take place on November 3.

And if none of the above works, then what you hear in American movies is:

See you in court!