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The world’s leading epidemiologists, the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, say that if current trends in Hungary continue, the situation will soon turn catastrophic. By the end of the year, there could be more than 12,500 deaths from the epidemic.
At the maximum peak expected by the end of November, 35,000 will actually be infected (that is, the identified and unidentified infected together) and 220 will die daily; this is evident from the IHME model calculations reviewed by Magyar Hang. The US organization, which is also supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and makes the most accurate predictions since the outbreak began, says a coronavirus catastrophe could soon strike Hungary.
On Saturday morning, operational staff announced that a new coronavirus (Covid-19) infection had been detected in 1,086 new Hungarian citizens, increasing the number of infected people in Hungary to 29,717. There were 14 chronic patients who died, bringing the number of deaths to 812, and 6,824 have already recovered. The number of actively infected people is 22 081. 36 percent of those actively infected, 52 percent of the dead and 35 percent of those recovered are from Budapest. 704 coronavirus patients are treated in the hospital, 43 of which are connected to ventilators. Of the nearly 11,500 tests conducted, 9.7 percent were positive, and the WHO said less than 5 percent said enough samples were taken.
The situation can get worse if the health system cannot treat those infected after a point. If beds in intensive care units fill up, if the free ventilator runs out, if doctors and nurses fall, patients who might otherwise be rescued may also die (not to mention critically ill patients without coronavirus). But it can also be a problem to accommodate patients who do not have coronavirus, as this can leave them without care.
The model does not mean that this is certainly the case. People themselves can reduce the risk of disease transmission by following hygiene rules, wearing masks regularly but beyond the requirements, keeping their distance. Although epidemic and anti-masking sounds have intensified in recent times, they are in fact important tools for defense. The misinformation that is spreading now is that the epidemic is spreading even with the use of the mask that is currently prescribed, which means that wearing it is simply nonsense: Most new infections contract the coronavirus when they were not wearing one. mask. Currently, the regulation allows many loopholes: they do not need to be used in nightclubs, in the street crowd, at transport stops, at football matches, at brandy festivals. This is risky in many ways.
Tightening is not yet expected in Hungary, but individual decisions can go beyond mandatory regulations. It has become a hotel verb among doctors,
The mask can be uncomfortable, but an intubation tube for the ventilator is much more painful.
By the way, half of Hungarians are at least partially satisfied with the government’s management of the epidemic, while 3% say there is no epidemic. You can read more about the recent research results here:
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