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According to a study analyzing data from India, only a small percentage of those infected play a significant role in the spread of the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Children and young adults have a potentially greater role in the spread of the epidemic than previous studies have shown.
The study, published in the scientific journal Science, was conducted by the Princeton University School of Environmental Studies (PEI), researchers from Johns Hopkins University and the University of California (Berkeley), and public health professionals from Tamil Nadu. and Andhra Pradesh in southeast India, said medicalxpress. com scientific portal following the MTI.
Researchers have examined the epidemic route and death rate in more than half a million Indian cases. According to the largest contact investigation study to date, 84,965 confirmed coronavirus patients were in contact with 575,071 people.
Ramanan Laxminarayan, PEI Principal Investigator, highlighted that a large-scale study shows that “super spread” plays a key role in the spread of the coronavirus epidemic, meaning that a small number of infected people transmit the virus to many people. . and only 8 percent of those infected caused 60 percent of the new infections, the study found.
The researcher emphasized that his study provided the largest-scale empirical justification for superdistribution to date.
Superdistribution is the rule rather than the exception when it comes to the spread of the coronavirus, both in India and probably in all affected areas.
Said the researcher.
According to the study, in India, where the epidemic has so far caused more than 96,000 deaths, deaths occurred after an average of six days of hospitalization, while in the United States, deaths were treated in hospital for an average of 13 days.
In India, the majority of coronavirus deaths occurred in the 50-64 age group, while in the United States, the group at highest risk of mortality was older than 60 years in the study period.
The researchers also noted that the spread of the coronavirus has been significantly reduced due to nationwide quarantine regulations in India.
According to the study, the probability that a person infected with coronavirus, regardless of age, will transmit the virus to a close contact is 2.6 percent in a community and 9 percent within a home. Children and young adults, who accounted for a third of coronavirus cases, played a particularly important role in spreading the virus among the poor. “Children spread the virus very effectively, according to study results, although this has not been conclusively established in previous research. Reported cases and deaths were concentrated in younger age groups than expected from observations in higher-income countries, ”Laxminarayan said.
Children and young adults were more likely to infect their peers of similar age, according to the study. According to the research, in general, relationships belonging to the same age group greatly increase the chance of infection in all age groups, the probability of contracting the coronavirus from low-risk and high-risk relationships ranges from 4.7 to 10.7 percent.
(Cover image: A sample is taken from a woman for a coronavirus test in Ahmedabad, India, on September 22, 2020. In India, with a population of 1.3 billion, the number of daily deaths from the coronavirus epidemic established a record, with 5.3 million people infected In a few weeks, the country could become the most affected by the coronavirus epidemic, surpassing the United States.
MTI / AP / Ajit Szolank)
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