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US time on September 29 at 9 p.m., that is, today, for the first time, Republican Donald Trump and Democratic opponent, former Obama Vice President Joe Biden, face off. The debate will be held at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, and is expected to be well attended. The debate on the presidential candidate is not a formality at all, its significance is enormous – Previously, during the presidential elections, it was extremely rare for the two candidates to have such a different view of the world, and the campaign would have shown such negative and hostile attitudes.
The event will be moderated by Fox News reporter Chris Wallace. Although the main focus of the Fox Trump base and the right-wing media are also on the Republican side, this is no longer possible from Wallace, as the reporter personally has already had a disagreement with the president. The debate will last an hour and a half and will cover the following topics:
- Trump and Biden’s career,
- Supreme Court,
- coronavirus crisis,
- racial demonstrations,
- the feasibility of the choice,
- Economy.
In the previous points, the candidates have radically opposite points of view; For example, Trump has repeatedly condemned racial protests, aggressive protesters have been called disorderly, and the army’s deployment has been planned, but Biden has expressed sympathy for the movement rather than its aggressive wing. There are also significant differences between the parties in the economic field: Biden has rather included a kind of American version of social democracy in his program, while Trump has a strongly liberal vision of economic policy. The debate over the election will also be important, as the President has made clear on several occasions that the Democrats want to cheat the election with the vote, thus practically questioning the credibility of the results beforehand, and the Democrats fear that Trump is not peaceful. to transfer energy.
Biden has more to fear
Donald Trump is generally good at arguing, but Joe Biden is not. Analysts, therefore, hope that Biden, who is aggressively debating, cutting off each other’s words, personalizing Trump, will be able to compete in the controversy with calm and confusing words. There are likely many examples of personalization: Trump, for example, constantly calls out Bident Sleepy Joe and focused his Democratic nominee’s mental abilities and age (77) at the center of his campaign, and Biden also campaigned strongly against Trump.
Because of all of this, we can probably prepare for a debate so heated, tense, and hectic that has long been exemplified in the history of the United States.
By the way, it was also questionable whether the debate would take place. It has been repeatedly raised that the debate should be postponed due to the coronavirus, and prominent Democratic politician Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, did not even want Biden to argue with Trump. As a justification, she did not refer to the coronavirus, but simply said that Biden should not legitimize Trump by sitting at a table with her. There is reason to believe that Pelosi wanted to protect Bident from defeat in the debate, but the argument alone is a good indication of how tense the mood was between the parties.
What is worth paying attention to during the discussion?
Trump’s tax affairs will certainly play a prominent role in the debate, saying that the Republican president has paid only a minimal amount of taxes in recent years. Trump’s tax affairs were already raised in the 2016 election, at the suggestion of Hillary Clinton, a Democratic candidate at the time, that Trump is keeping his tax affairs secret because he presumably did not pay taxes, the Republican candidate responded: “I am very smart in this case. ” We can probably expect a similar response now, because Trump simply called the news “fake news.” On the other hand, the Asian deals of China and the son of Biden will surely come to the fore, as this terrain is one of Trump’s strengths (it is probably not a coincidence that Trump resumed conflicts with China before the elections) . Trump will also be asked to accept the election results if he loses, as he has not yet given a concrete answer. The appointment of conservative Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court will also be considered, as he has a conservative majority on the board.
As for the markets, after the first presidential debate, it is not usually typical for the stock markets to react quickly, but as we have written before, the current debate is not at all normal. Otherwise, markets would be happier with a Trump victory, no doubt, with the president’s tax cuts from the previous cycle embedded in the overheated economy and rising stock markets, and he would certainly continue to pursue this policy. Although Joe Biden promises tax increases, his victory tonight (American political analysts generally declare a winner after debate) will likely not bring a correction, nor his election necessarily, as in a coronavirus crisis, the government is tasked. to ease the burden on businesses. In this area, left-wing Democrats were, by the way, much more generous than Republicans: Democrats in the House of Representatives adopted a second-round package of $ 3 billion, but Trump “only” wanted to inject $ 1 billion. in the economy after the first gigantic package. Ultimately, an agreement was missing, and it will come at a significant financial cost; perhaps that is also the subject of the debate.
For now, Biden has the flag
Joe Biden’s absence from the debate would have been a completely rational decision. Based on current polls, Joe Biden would confidently beat Trump in the election, of course, only if nothing extraordinary happens by then. Such may be the case today with a debate in which Trump can destabilize reeling voters by clearly outperforming Biden. We write about probabilities in detail here.
Today’s debate will be followed by two more, so the candidates will still have a chance to show whether today’s opportunity would go awry for either party. The next time will be on October 15 and the last on October 22. In addition, the two presidential candidates, Republican Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, will debate on October 7. The election will be held on November 3.
Today’s discussion begins at 3 am Hungarian time and the Portfolio will cover the event live.
Cover image: Getty Images
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