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Although all the powers of the world are calling for an immediate end to hostilities, the severe Armenian-Azerbaijani fighting that began on Sunday continues in Karabakh, which is embedded in the territory of Azerbaijan and is inhabited mainly by Armenians. There are signs that there will hardly be a peaceful solution to the crisis, especially since a new player, Turkey, is being activated.
The opposing parties deploy almost their entire arsenal. Although the ceasefire in force since 1994 has been violated several times in the previous months, now not only Armenians and Azeris are firing with small arms, but tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters are also being fought. Casualties on both sides exceed 20 and local civilians said several civilians were killed. It is also worrisome that an Azerbaijani coup hit the Karabakh capital, Stepanakert, which is relatively far from the front.
Tensions escalated in Karabakh in the early 1990s, in the waning days of the Soviet Union, and after ethnic clashes broke out in several Azerbaijani cities, partly inhabited by Armenians, the Armenian-majority Karabakh in Azerbaijan declared its independence. in 11,000 square kilometers.
Immediately afterwards, serious clashes broke out between Armenia, which supports the Karabakh army, and Azerbaijan, and Armenia, which is supported by Russia, emerged victorious from a war that claimed at least 30,000 lives. Baku was forced to temporarily tolerate the Karabakh secession and the fact that the broad transport corridor connecting Karabakh with Armenia was still under Armenian occupation.
However, Azerbaijan did not renounce for a moment the reconquest of Karabakh and the territory occupied by the Armenians cleaned of Azeris. The former Soviet republic, rich in oil and gas and inhabited by three times as many people as Armenia, has embarked on heavy weaponry, a period when Azerbaijan’s defense budget was close to Armenia’s GDP, and Azerbaijan still spends at least three times more in its army than Armenia. neighbour.
© AFP / Ministry of Defense of Armenia
Russian stability
Russia, which also has significant economic and political influence in Armenia and Azerbaijan, has always played a key role in the Karabakh crisis. Moscow is selling a significant amount of weapons to opposing parties, according to the official explanation, because Russia can maintain the balance in this way, and Moscow has also succeeded in getting Armenia, which has been winking at the EU for years, to finally join. the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia. In Yerevan, the following were evaluated:
If the country says no to the Russian offer, the Russian parachute essential for the maintenance of Karabakh will probably disappear.
Thanks in part to Russian politics, fighting in and around Karabakh has only broken out a few times in the last twenty years. The last time really serious fighting broke out in 2016, and in July there was fiercer fighting than usual in the area. The special feature of the summer fighting was the fact that this time the opposing parties did not participate in a shootout on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, or in Karabakh.
In 2017, the fight went on for the last time
© AFP / Celestino Arce
New character, serious intentions
The relative balance is disturbed by the increasingly active role of Turkey, which clearly supports Azerbaijan. According to the Armenian ambassador to Moscow, Ankara has recently commanded some four thousand militants fighting in northern Syria in Azerbaijan, these units are also said to be involved in the fighting in Karabakh. The Turks refute the accusations and claim that on the Armenian side, the Kurds are fighting the Azeris.
Meanwhile, Turkey is also on the diplomatic front in favor of Azerbaijan (Azeris speak a language very similar to Turkish) and clearly blames Yerevan for the escalation of the fighting. “Armenia is on fire, Armenia is the biggest driver of stability in the Caucasus,” Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said, adding that Ankara is providing all assistance to Azerbaijan.
Hulusi akar
© AFP / MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE OF
At the same time, Turkish aid is certainly limited by Russian policy, since Moscow can hardly allow its ally Armenia to suffer a heavy defeat. And Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not want to draw attention to Moscow again, because he was once the one who apologized to Russian President Vladimir Putin. When a Turkish fighter shot down a Russian hunter on the Syrian-Turkish border, and because Erdogan did not immediately defend himself, Russia hit the Turks with a whole series of effective punitive measures. The relationship has improved since then, but not without clouds: while Ankara bought Russian SZ-400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Moscow in Libya, which was plunged into civil war, the two countries support different groups fighting in Armenia and Azerbaijan. .
Distraction
Analysts say the current crisis could be exacerbated by poor economic performance in both countries. Azerbaijan has been affected by falling oil and gas prices for more than a year, while the industry in Armenia has been stagnant for a long time and people are leaving the country in droves. In such circumstances, both governments may have an interest in stoking nationalist sentiments.
Yerevan and Baku have also declared a state of emergency, with full mobilization ordered in Armenia and partial mobilization in Azerbaijan. For weeks nowhere the economic situation and the handling of the coronavirus epidemic are likely to dominate public discourse. It is also a bad sign that the dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia has been interrupted for several months, so it cannot be ruled out that the fighting since Sunday will worsen further and spread to new fronts.
Main image: video of Sunday’s military action by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense
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