Even according to the optimistic version, the recession could be 4 percent this year – Pénzügykutató Zrt.

Neither GDP nor employment will reach the 2019 level in 2021, only growth will be high compared to this year’s weak performance, according to the analysis by Pénzügykutató Zrt.

According to the optimistic version, which estimates that the second wave of the epidemic will be managed successfully without having to shut down the economy, GDP could fall 4 percent this year and grow 2 percent next. Under the pessimistic scenario, the recession will be 8 percent this year and will increase 3 percent from this lower base next year.

In the optimistic scenario, real earnings could grow 6.2 percent this year and 2 percent next. In the pessimistic version, real wage growth is expected to be 5.4 percent for this year and only 0.5 percent by 2021.

The government has promised that whoever loses their job will get a new one, if not from the private sector, then from the state, and according to August figures, 4.5 million have already returned to work. The Financial Researcher estimates that the annual average may be 4.43 to 4.44 million employees, and unemployment is likely to have bottomed out. No dramatic changes are expected in 2021, unemployment may fall a bit gradually, they wrote.



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Reuters: The MNB has given up the dream that we will recover quickly from the crisis


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Economy

According to central bank experts, the crisis may be in the form of a Nike check mark in Hungary instead of V. However, the MNB is by far the most optimistic player in the economy.