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Given that the European Union does not have the means to exclude Member States that, according to the majority, do not adhere to the fundamental values of the Union, the possibility arises that the EU will reestablish itself without Poland and Hungary.
A typical conversation on current EU relations took place in early September in the Dutch parliament between Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Gram van Ojik, a member of the left-wing Greens. The issue was that grants from the EU’s € 750 billion coronavirus recovery fund should be distributed subject to the rule of law. In other words, countries that do not have the rule of law, and therefore it is easy to steal money, should be denied remission. That was the suggestion of the Green Party.
Rutte responded that they could conclude an international agreement on the substance, provided they do not impose the rule of law, which the Polish and Hungarian governments rejected with a veto, or a new European Union without Poland and Hungary. For those living outside the EU bubble, this blade shift may seem insignificant in the face of acute issues like tackling the coronavirus crisis or the climate issue, or the impact of US President Donald Trump’s regression, but this is not the one. case, says Tom Theuns, Dutch. Professor of political science at the University of Leiden, who wrote an article for Euobserver.
This crisis remains
In the face of the public health crisis, the rule of law crisis will not go away as the coronavirus fury subsides. What is at stake is whether the EU will survive as a community of democracies. Tensions over this have been going on for a decade and are increasingly concentrated in Poland and Hungary.
In Hungary, the Orbán government severely restricted independent media, undermined the independence of the judiciary, and, at the height of the pandemic, an indefinite license to rule was granted. In Poland, the ruling party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski turned public television into a propaganda institution, restricted the independence of the judiciary and declared a third of the country an “LGBT free zone”.
Inertia
Rutte, as the leader of an EU member state, is the first to suggest that the EU integration project should be carried out without the countries that stubbornly oppose it, notes the author of the article Euobserver. The wording that a new EU should be established clearly indicates that the community of states is powerless against such governments. The European Treaty does not provide for the possibility of excluding Member States. In fact, there is a way out, the famous Article 50, according to which the UK voluntarily withdrew from the union.
The author of the Euobserver article then summarizes the difficulties of the Article 7 procedure. This will allow the voting rights of one member state to be suspended, but only if the leaders of all other EU countries vote in favor. In this way, the Polish and Hungarian prime ministers can use a mutual veto to prevent other countries from cornering their countries.
Rebuild everything
Rutte’s suggestion that the EU could reestablish itself without Poland and Hungary and, of course, with new rules that could avoid a similar deadlock would mean that countries that are concerned about the rule of law would do well under Article 50. region of the Union, who would die like this. This change, of course, would not be cheap and would penalize a small pro-European part of the population of the omitted countries. Therefore, we can only talk about it as a theoretical idea.
However, according to the Dutch political scientist professor, inaction cannot be the alternative. If Hungary and Poland continue to slide into autocracy, the entire EU will lose its democratic system of power, its character that respects the rule of law above all else.
Rutte’s comment could have been directed at Dutch nativist nationalists or served to strengthen their strong leadership image. However, this further highlights the fact that the European Union faces an existential threat arising from the abandonment of democracy. The question must be asked: can the Union be sustainable if some of its Member States, which it even supports financially, operate increasingly autocratic political regimes? Or should you protect your core values at any cost?
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