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A carefully chosen strategy could be behind the peak of the epidemic in late December and early January announced by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The timing would be ideal because then the strong coronavirus epidemic would not turn into the annual flu, Tamás Nepusz, a bioinformatician and researcher analyzing the coronavirus epidemic in Hungary, who is not a member of the Orbán staff, told hvg.hu.
The prime minister predicted the peak of the first wave of the epidemic from April 20 to May 3, and the forecast of the team of analysts allegedly behind turned out to be accurate. Once again, Orbán referred to epidemiologists when it reached the peak of the second wave in December-January, which could be a potential culmination of a carefully chosen strategy, the expert quoted the portal as saying.
Tamás Nepusz finds it encouraging that the number of reproductions at the end of August, which stands at 2.5 (indicating the average number of people infected by an infected person), has now dropped to around 1.3, which, if remains stable, it will remain around 1.3. , it can facilitate further calculations. According to him, the government is constantly monitoring the impact of the measures, keeping the epidemic under control with the aim of reducing this number below 1 by the end of December (an infected person will pass the virus to less than one person), which will extinguish the epidemic. As the time approaches, they can tense up or relax depending on the new numbers.
With a recent shutdown, the epidemic could peak in vain in late October, and another wave could come in the winter, sliding into the annual flu. The peak in late December may be ideal precisely for the latter, as the two would not slide together. However, this does not mean that the restrictions are releasable.
In this sense, a coronavirus epidemic is like a ball pressed under water, which does not reappear unless it remains low.
– Said the expert to the portal.
In his opinion, the number of patients that increase at the time of the peak of the epidemic cannot yet be predicted, his self-developed simulator does not even count for more than 90 days, as it can only be modeled based on the current situation . Government simulations, on the other hand, can be more accurate because they can take much more detailed data into account. Presumably, this is how they can calculate when it is worth tracking the shopping time zone reserved for the elderly, although according to Béla Merkely, rector of the University of Semmelweis, it would be time.
More details here.
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