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Although the official communication says that the worst phase of the coronavirus epidemic occurred in the spring when the new pathogen arrived unprepared, an American expert said that the United States will enter a more dangerous phase in October than ever. Their arguments are also true in other countries of the world.
In the United States, as in Europe and Hungary, April was the most dramatic and dangerous phase of the coronavirus epidemic. Mortality rates rose, with poor hospital protective equipment, from rubber gloves to ventilators. The economy has declined, unemployment has risen; In the United States in particular, the unemployment rate has approached 15 percent.
Since then, medical equipment has been purchased, and doctors have experimented with how to effectively treat patients with coronavirus disease. It turned out that those most at risk, the elderly, for example, nursing homes were immediately closed when the second wave hit. Now it is the turn of the young to survive the coronavirus infection, reducing the number of serious and fatal cases. On the economy side, the crisis management launched in the spring will continue to work.
That is not the case
That’s what politicians tell people, but economics professor Barry Eichengreen, a former IMF adviser, believes the worst is yet to come, including in health and the economy. It is true that mortality has decreased due to better healthcare and a more favorable age composition of patients, but in the US, for example, thousands still die every day from the coronavirus, which is in line with data from early April.
If we analyzed this alone, we would not get an accurate picture because we would not take into account the aftermath of the coronavirus disease. As a result, a significant portion of the tens of thousands of newly infected Americans will struggle with heart problems for a long time or feel that their previous physical performance has not returned. Furthermore, many Americans, and not just Americans, have agreed that the virus is taking its toll. With 40,000 new infections a day and 1,000 deaths becoming “normal”, people are fed up with restrictions and can come to a political compromise on who wears a mask and who doesn’t.
Neither does the economy
When it comes to managing the economic crisis, the situation in this area may become more dire because the world’s governments and central banks have essentially fired their ammunition during the spring round. More recent bond purchases, for example, are producing fewer and fewer returns after yields have already fallen sharply and interest rates have returned to zero than in the decade since the 2008 crash.
Meanwhile, in the United States Congress, with a few members fighting a battle for reelection before the November vote, the bipartisan consensus on what to do was lost, much of which was still in the spring. So, for example, being able to run out of a $ 600 state salary to support American families, Donald Trump and other Republicans talk about the bad situation in which the leaders are Democratic politicians.
Vaccine
The “solution” everyone is hoping for is the vaccine, but the former IMF adviser says it is the biggest threat possible. I mean, it’s not the vaccination itself, it’s the expectation that it will solve everything. It’s not just that drugs that have been poorly tested for urgent development can have dangerous side effects, but also that many people won’t get vaccinated anyway due to vaccine skepticism.
The acquisition of the so-called flock immunity, that is, the spontaneous protection that results from the transfection of societies, remains, but according to the author of the article, due to the many comorbidities associated with the coronavirus that further weaken people, this it doesn’t offer a happy ending either. And then we don’t even talk about the flu season starting in October.
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