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The economic and financial effects of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic will be discussed in detail at the Portfolio conference on October 8 of the Budapest Economic Forum. More details:
Due to the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic at home, we have created new figures from our database that perhaps capture even more of what is happening now and how fast it is spreading than in our articles on daily infection data. It’s worth starting with the big picture first, according to which the total number of confirmed infections in Hungary has exceeded 9,000 (9,304), and now the distribution seems to have already recovered 3,972 (orange zone), unfortunately 626 have already died and therefore the number of infected people active is 4,706. I do that With this explosion, where did Hungary go in international comparison?, in a side article with a spectacular map, my colleague summarized:
This means that the crude death rate (the ratio of all deaths to all confirmed infections) is still 6.7%, still suggesting that the national epidemiological system does not find infected with sufficient efficiency. This was said the other day by János Szlávik, the chief infectologist of the South Pest Central Hospital, and even confirmed it to this message, because according to him, only 10-15 in spring. the system has found a real coronavirus infected, so far this can only be every 20. So if there are official reports of 500 people per day, that means we are actually talking about 10,000 new people per day. We’ve written about these in more detail these days:
Slavs may have a lot of direct experience with active infectives, of which 192 out of a camp of 4,706 are currently in need of hospital treatment and 12 of them with ventilators.
If we examine the last two categories separately, it appears that
the number of infected people in the hospital (192 people) has more than tripled in the last two weeks,
In parallel, the number of people needing ventilation increased from 7 to 12. In the spring, we could see numbers much higher than these, but unfortunately in the coming weeks, the system may approach these numbers at a rapid pace, As after the current youth group, the infection and accompanying discomfort are unfortunately becoming more and more widespread among the elderly.
Gergely Röst, professor of mathematics at the University of Szeged and head of the epidemiological mathematics team, which regularly briefs decision-makers with expert reports, first drew attention to the so-called California phenomenon, according to which the infection broke out among the young in the summer in such a way that for 4-5 weeks it was not followed by an increase in deaths, but then, as the older ones became infected, this also happened:
For now, in the name of grading, the EMMI has already reserved 20% of coronavirus infections instead of 10% of hospital beds, so at the moment this quota is abundant and fortunately it does not even involve the repatriation of patients hospitalized, as has been the case.
By the way, if we look even more closely at how the burden on the hospital care system is increasing, we see that the number of confirmed infections entering the hospital per day has already started to increase, but those connected to the ventilator have only increased minimally. By the way, in the spring, the government acquired more than 20,000 fans at a rapid rate, and even if not all could be used due to technical or human capacity limitations (or because they had already been donated to Kazakhs or Transcarpathians, for example), our supply of fans appears to be plentiful, mainly in view of the fact that the Hungarian production capacity has already been established.
It is very important in the fight against the epidemic. the number of tests performed and the proportion of positive tests showing the presence of a viral infection. It is important to refute the misconception that the number of detected coronavirus infections has increased in recent days because they have been tested at a faster rate.
While the tests are primarily based on contact research, it is
THE RELATIONSHIP HAS BEEN REVERSED: THE TESTS ARE COMPLETED THE NUMBER jumps, because more and more it becomes suspicious with its SYMPTOMS WITH THE SUPPLY of the system that performs the tests on us and on us for KERÜLŐKÖN NUMBER OF CASES AND NEW ITEMS jumps out.
Today, testing is done for other reasons as well, but we can’t say that the number of infected people is increasing because we are testing more. This is also indicated by the fact that the experts speak unanimously about the deterioration of the detection rate.
Like shown in the next figure: the number of coronavirus samples in Hungary jumped to a new high of 11,424 yesterday, and even the 7-day moving average is above 8,000, which is double the tests performed at the peak of the spring wave. Thus, it appears that testing capacity has increased in the country, although the former medical director is urging that it be increased further to 15,000 per day and even more free testing facilities are needed.
As mentioned, a very important epidemiological data is the percentage of tests performed daily that are positive. As we can see in the following figure: even in the last days, even with test numbers on the rise for the fifth day in a row, this rate jumped to 5-6% and this is important because it is recommended by the WHO in May
if this rate rises above 5% (and stays there for two weeks), it suggests that the epidemic is not really under control and more should be tested.
According to the WHO, if the rate is below 5% for two weeks, one can speak of an effective control, an epidemic that is adequately controlled.
Obviously, the more confirmed those infected, the more it will be necessary for others to enter mandatory home quarantine during the contact investigation (this is also justified by returning home from abroad until there are two confirmed negative virus tests). As a result of these two effects By now, the number of people in official home quarantine has risen to a new high of 23,318, nearly a third more than the spring peak. As we can see: in recent days, thousands of people have been subjected to mandatory quarantine in Hungary, which may also make many people aware that the epidemic is spreading very fast here.
Cover Image Source: MTI / Koszticsák Szilárd
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