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In recent days, we have regularly reported on the evolution of the daily number of infected, as well as expert opinions that the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic is much stronger than the first. At least in terms of the number of new and active infections, because otherwise this wave is different from spring.
In light of recent data, many are curious about the current value of the reproduction rate, which is a good indicator of the rate of spread of the epidemic. The reproduction number expresses the average number of other people infected by an infected person. The new coronavirus usually has a reproduction number between 2.5 and 3 without protective measures.
Gergely Röst, professor of mathematics in the epidemiological research team, gave an idea of how the value of R might have increased in an interview with Portfolio this week. At the end of August, this value was around 2-2.5. Later, Beatrix Oroszi, an epidemiologist with the group, indicated in a conference on Monday that the new coronavirus is spreading more aggressively and faster than during the first wave, because many young people are spreading it asymptomatically.
In such an epidemiological situation, it is interesting to see where the value of the Hungarian reproduction rate lies in a regional comparison. And here comes the recent presentation by Juraj Kotian, Erste Bank Chief Economist for Central and Eastern Europe. The analyst gave a presentation at the Bratislava Real Estate Forum on Friday on the economic outlook for the region amid the coronavirus crisis. Of course, it also covered the visible spread of the epidemic in the region, indicating the development of the reproduction rate of the V4 countries over time.
It can be clearly seen from the following figures: Unfortunately, Hungary’s rate is exceptional in the region.
While the Czech, Polish and Slovak breeding rates are around 1, the Hungarian value has decreased in recent days.
Cover image source: MTI / Zoltán Balogh
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