The government also prepares for the second wave of the coronavirus in hospitals

Miklós Kásler wrote a letter

A letter from the head of EMMI on Wednesday “with instructions to inspect beds suitable for the care of Covid-19 infected patients” was sent to the heads of all inpatient healthcare providers.

The conclusion is that, instead of the current 10% of the total number of beds in hospitals

20% of the total number of beds must be kept available so that these beds can be included in the care of Covid-19 infected patients if necessary.

Miklós Kásler asks those responsible for the institutions to verify the existence and suitability of the beds that can be included in the care of patients infected by coronavirus, necessary to maintain preparation.

An important point of instruction is that

implementation of the measure should not result in the dismissal of patients from the institution.

Hospital administrators must indicate that the bed review detailed above has been completed by 10 am on Friday and the number of properly prepared beds must also be submitted.

How many beds does this affect?

According to a June statement from the National Health Insurance Fund, the total number of beds was 69,000 (combination of active and chronic hospital care). 20% of that means 13,800 beds.

However, it is important to see that based on the most recent status (based on the June NEAK report), 53% of the active beds and 52% of the chronic beds were used. In other words, 31,600 beds were already empty in June. Since then, the number of available beds is expected to decrease somewhat as patients gradually return to the care system during the summer, but it can be said that the 20% provision for coronavirus cases now ordered can be made by the institutions (the national average at least shows it). , of course, there may be differences in individual cases). At the same time, the availability of 13,800 beds means a large capacity, as 100 people are currently being treated in the hospital., although this number is expected to increase in addition to the current daily case numbers.

Was expected

During the spring epidemic, the ministry released 50% of the hospital beds with the heads of the institutions (instead of the 60% originally planned), and then this gradually and significantly decreased as the situation of the epidemic decreased. More recently, only 10% of the total number of beds were on hold for coronavirus patients, and since May, the rule has been to transport new severe coronavirus patients to the two priority hospitals, St. Ladislaus Hospital and Koranyi. This made it possible to relieve hospitals and gradually reestablish other hospital care.

However, in recent weeks, the number of coronavirus infections in Hungary has started to increase dramatically, with the virus appearing in more and more communities. However, an important difference from the spring epidemic is that the virus is now more prevalent among the young, while the previous wave affected the elderly with chronic diseases. The average age of newly infected people is around 30, with an average age of 31 years after turning 69 in April.

It also stems from the main difference in the epidemic situation that the number of hospital admissions is not increasing so dramatically, nor the number of deaths, because it is not the people at risk who are now being attacked by the virus.

It can also be read from the Crown Monitor figure prepared by ATLO’s data visualization team that the number of hospitalized patients is still far from the spring peaks, It is currently with 100 people.

however, the total number of hospital cases is on an upward trend and is at a peak of one and a half months.

However, it must also be taken into account that there is a risk that the spread of the virus will reach a point where it is no longer possible to fully protect the vulnerable layer if epidemiological measures are strictly adhered to and no further measures are taken. Perceived by both the government and health institutions, it is not a coincidence that hospitals and nursing homes have in turn announced a ban on visits in recent days. In her interview with Portfolio, mathematician Gergely Röst, a member of a research group that supports government decisions, mentioned the case of Florida for comparison, which she said was concerning.

“There was also a period when the number of cases increased, but the number of hospitalizations and deaths did not increase. This made them less concerned about the increase in the number of cases. Five weeks after the number of cases increased, too it did the number of deaths. If we look at the age distribution of cases from week to week in Florida, then we can see that it took several weeks for the virus to spread to other age groups and reach the elderly and vulnerable groups, “he explained. the expert, which is why preparation is important in all respects.

The government has learned

Based on Miklós Kásler’s letter, two more important statements can be made:

1. The government has learned from the epidemiological situation in the spring, the high and rapid forced release of the bed (eventually it was 50%) and its consequences, so now it clearly follows the principle of elimination (release of 20% after 10 %).
2. He also learned from the point of view that, due to gradation, this process cannot result in the dismissal of patients from institutions. The repatriation of patients in the spring caused a serious impact not only here in Hungary.

Top image: Rescuers dressed in protective clothing carry a coronavirus-infected patient on a stretcher to the clinic of the Epidemiology Deployment Unit in the Kútvölgyi block of New St. John’s Hospital and Clinic in the north center of Buda, Budapest, on August 27, 2020. Source: MTI / Zoltán Balogh