[ad_1]
After the EURHUF breaks past the previous resistance around 356.7, it will continue to rise with great momentum and since then the exchange rate has risen another 2 units, that is, the forint will continue to fall. Florins have been the weakest at nearly 359, that is, since the beginning of April, five months now. Meanwhile, of regional currencies, only the Polish zloty weakened to the same extent as the forint (0.7%), while the Czech crown survived with a 0.3% drop. According to a Reuters market summary, better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data yesterday afternoon (56 points instead of 54.6 points) pushed the dollar 2.5-year low against the euro ( from 1.1980 1, Until 1860 he jumped green-bellied) and The strengthening of the dollar hurts now, among other regional currencies, the forint, for example.
In our opinion, the fact that, with the number of Hungarian coronavirus cases reaching a record, also influences the fall of the forint and the slightly lower regional performance observed for days. the market began to rate the Hungarian economic performance worse than previously thought, which points to a relaxed monetary and fiscal policy. The Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó was strong today, when he said that the partial shutdown of the Hungarian economy should be avoided even if the number of cases of coronavirus jumps. This suggests that the government may also fear the economic impact of possible new austerity measures, measures that were proposed yesterday by epidemiology experts.
The forint fell almost 4% against the euro in a month, and its wave of weakness began in mid-August after weak published data for Hungarian GDP, when market expectations that the MNB would take a step forward intensified. relaxation to support the economy. Since then, this has happened with the increase in its bond purchase plan (which will help the state finance the larger bond issue) and on Monday, the governor of the MNB, György Matolcsy, argued that By 2022, the budget deficit and therefore the debt figures must be forgivento support the economy at the time of the epidemic. As we noted in our quick review on Monday, this also contributed to the forint’s slide that day. With the new number of infectious cases today that has reached a record These signals may further contribute to the weakening of the forint, as they point to maintaining extremely flexible and persistent monetary policy to support the economy despite limited export sales opportunities.
[ad_2]
