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So how much chance does the opposition have in 2022? What appears today: more than ever. What is not visible today: what may be enough for that, believes political scientist Gábor Török.
We could carefully consider what is worth more: the crisis, the joint action of the opposition and the long government on the one hand, or the power plant, the Gyurcsány issue and the state of the opposition on the other. What will be stronger before the next elections, how much can one contribute to the opposition, how much can the other get out of it.
Obviously, the right answer today, a year and a half before the elections, cannot be anything other than “I don’t know” – the political scientist Gábor Török said on his blog, who said that it seems today that in the 2022 elections however, at present it is not clear what it may be enough for.
According to the analyst, the hope of the opposition can be reinforced by three important factors. The most important of them is the change in economic situation. Since he has been in the Fidesz government, he has not had to politicize in an economic crisis (recession) in the run-up to the elections. However, people’s subjective perception of the state of the economy has been the main explanation for the change in government support since 2010. When this indicator was more favorable than before, the Fidesz-KDNP moved higher, when it decreased , the popularity of the government side also declined.
Another important change could be the electoral tactics of the opposition. This is because if the opposition can really back a candidate in constituency 106, it will clearly create a new situation. Of course, all this does not mean that they have found the miracle weapon, simply for the first time since 2011, they now have the opportunity to fulfill a precondition without which they would have no chance.
Furthermore, in 2022, the Fidesz-KDNP will rule for 12 years, which puts the issue of power in a different light than before. Both political oxidation and voter harassment can be stronger than they used to be.
Among the factors that reduced the opposition’s chances, Turkey also listed three important things. The first of these is the operation of the machinery of power: the continuous campaign mode became a great advantage for Fidesz also in the previous elections. Furthermore, the Gyurcsány issue has been a constant feature of Hungarian politics since 2010 and can best be described by the phrase “neither spit nor swallow” for the sake of simplicity. And the power plant is obviously doing its best to keep the issue on the agenda at all times.
The third element that points in the direction of immutability is the state of opposition. The opposition has almost nothing to say about itself, its goals and issues, if we ask voters to characterize individual opposition parties, there would be little real and positive ruling beyond the replacement of the Orbán government, said the political scientist . Furthermore, in terms of resources, the opposition is also in a worse position than before: its money, its media, its hinterland is certainly not more, rather less than in previous cycles.
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