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At the Great Moscow Circus, he performed for many years, perhaps a decade, in the performance of a brilliant song, the Moyeyev Ballet. Two boys fought on stage for minutes, wrestling back and forth, and then at the end of the song it turned out that in fact a single dancer played both roles in the attraction, worth watching, brilliant.
In Hungary, it is rare for official opinions and economic forecasts to be distinguished and tense with each other, but it is certain that in the end we will only have a real GDP change data in 2020. At the moment, the economic forecasts and announcements released Central Bank Governor György Matolcsy, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Finance Minister Mihály Varga judge the prospects for the Hungarian economy in a completely different way.
Matolcsy on the radio
On the morning of May 10, Governor György Matolcsy expressed his opinion that the Hungarian economy can continue to be positive in 2020. As he said, successive growth forecasts for Europe reflect a variety of approaches. Two financial and economic institutions that deal with European forecasts are more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Hungarian government: the Polish central bank and the MNB.
The V-shaped crisis
Matolcsy continues to expect a quick drop and fast rebound, that is, a “V-shaped” economic impact.
As you said
the first quarter will not be bad, the second quarter will produce pretty horrible numbers, and the third and fourth quarter will outperform previously lost performance. “
That is why I dare say that there will be a 2-3 percent increase in Hungary in 2020, he explained. According to him, this is reinforced by the fact that the vast majority of the Hungarian economy is operating, even in the low weeks of April. There are endangered areas in crisis, he said, adding tourism and closely related hospitality, or part of the cultural, events and transportation sector.
The facts
He called for optimism based on the facts, which they hope will be reflected in the next GDP in the first quarter. He noted that in the first quarter, Hungarian consumption had a 10% surplus on retail sales and consumption compared to the euro area.
This is also a position that strengthens competitiveness, he noted. He said that the crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic had affected the Hungarian economy in good shape, but it had been affected.
Other forecasts
Previously, when the MNB expected the Hungarian economy to grow 2-3 percent by announcing its own program, the market thought that since the forecast could be made with data collection in early March, it still did not include the economic effects. of the great closure.
After all, let’s count! If half of tourism falls in the Hungarian economy this year alone, which is 10 percent with additional industries, it is also a 7 percent decline in GDP compared to the original rate. After that, an economy with a positive balance would require the production of other industries to be substantially higher, but in fact most of the national sectors are expected to decrease (the automotive industry and the machinery industry that serves it, for example) .
International organizations (IMF, European Commission) predict a 3-7 percent decrease in Hungary, the brutal April emissions cut described in Viktor Orbán’s radio interview on Friday, and the Finance Ministry also calculates a decrease in GDP of around 3 percent. Everyone would be happy if, in the end, György Matolcsy would go alone in the right direction on the road, but for now, he and his institution stand out with their opinions of the other forecasts.
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