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How many problems does the Hungarian economy have with the virus? And how can you get out of there? Answers coming soon:
Hungary has been in quarantine since mid-March, so the March retail statistics released by the OSC on Thursday may be of particular interest. Some of the stores closed or shortened, which in itself could have reduced turnover, as calendar-adjusted growth of 3.5% was the lowest in three years.
In this article, we are now testing retail traffic a bit with some charts, looking at who have been the winners and losers of exit restrictions so far. It is definitely worth noting at first that quarantine was still “only” half a month in March, meaning trends are likely to continue or intensify in April.
Retail sales by business type were as follows in March:
Of course, this in itself doesn’t say much, as there’s nothing to compare it against, so it’s worth looking at the development of traffic compared to the previous month and March 2019 to see the trends as well.
The chart above already shows the winners and losers of the current situation: We spent a lot more on pharmaceuticals and e-commerce in March, while clothing store turnover declined understandably as it practically closed in the second half. of the month.
Parcel delivery and e-commerce need to be examined a little more closely as it can be seen that the importance of this increased during quarantine:
It appears that this is a dynamic growing business without the epidemic, but March turnover was unusually high, even compared to this. The monthly figure of 82.5 billion HUF is not a record just because there were examples of 87-89 billion in November and December last year, but it is clear that
During the quarantine, almost all of the Christmas traffic was handled by web stores.
And in April, the traffic almost certainly surpassed that, so we can easily see a historical record as well. Then, in the long run, the question may be whether stores open, will people make a full return, or, based on positive experience, get a lasting boost in e-commerce.
The other area, where drug and medical product turnover was unusually high, was almost 50% higher than in March last year. The jump here is much more spectacular since there is no Christmas seasonality like in e-commerce, which makes the turnover of 63.1 billion in March a great historical peak. This is due to increased sales of protective equipment and drugs.
Looking at the two big winners in March, we show another interesting relative graph: how much of total retail turnover is e-commerce and medicine?
Apparently, there was also seasonality in the case of pharmacies, which were always higher in the first months of the year due to influenza epidemics, but now this has reached an all-time high. In the case of electronic commerce, the rate was higher only in the last Christmas season than in March.
We also saw that the big loser in March was fuel turnover, in part due to falling prices and in part due to curfew restrictions. That is why we have made a similar figure for service stations:
It seems that relatively stable fuel turnover has not been particularly affected by price fluctuations in recent years, there were no major fluctuations except for seasonality at the beginning of the year, but now its share in total retail trade has fallen. at an unprecedented level since 2015. Two effects.
Cover image: Getty Images
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