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Here is the new local low
The OTP exchange rate is already close to 6.5 percent.
With this drop, the previous local low has fallen, we now have to go back in time to the beginning of May 2017 to find a lower exchange rate than now.
The deterioration in international sentiment also plays a role in the fall, as the main European stock indices lose between 1 and 3 percent of their value today, in part due to the turbulence in the oil market, but the situation in our The region is even worse, with underperformance on the Polish and Hungarian markets.
The mood in the European banking sector is also bad, with the share prices of major European financial institutions falling by 4-5 percent.
Presumably, not many people are reassured by the fact that there is a newspaper whose price falls even more than OTP among regional bank stocks.
Why is it falling?
There are several reasons for the OTP crash today:
- Capital market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with major European and US stock indices standing 2-3 percent lower today.
- Technical impact: The rebound due to overspending was not permanent, the exchange rate reversed and fell the previous low last Thursday.
- At today’s Portfolio online lending conference, OTP investors did not accept multiple data: On the one hand, András Becsei spoke about lending going back to 2022, the recovery is necessary to start this year, and Márton Nagy said. In addition to the economic baseline of the Inflation Report, the credit sector credit deterioration could be 330-350 billion HUF this year, and on the stressed track record, in the event of a 2% recession, it could be 405-432 billion HUF this year. Last year, the internal profit of the banking system was around HUF 450 billion without dividends, it can be halved in the reference scenario, with an economic stagnation that falls to HUF 100 billion, in a very negative situation to around zero.
Cover image: Akos Stiller / Bloomberg via Getty Images
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