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The latest polls have come in ahead of the US presidential election, which continue to measure a significant lead from Biden, but the gap has narrowed in several major states on the battlefield. It follows from the specificity of the US presidential election system that most Member States have achieved results, so we must focus on those Member States where competition remains fierce, including population. These are called battlefield states.
What is the US presidential election system like?
It is important to know about the American electoral system that the president is not chosen directly by the people, but by the so-called voters. The 538 electors in the 50 Member States are roughly distributed in proportion to the population: currently the largest Member State sends 55 electricity, the smallest only 3. Voters in each Member State vote for the presidential candidates, and whoever wins the contest in that Member State the entire electorate of that Member State wins. It doesn’t matter if the winning candidate wins by 51% or 70% at that location, they still get all the electricity, while the loser gets nothing. The president will eventually be the one with at least 270 votes in the electoral college. That is why we are paying attention to those populous Member States where the competition is fierce, because the presidential elections are actually decided here.
Joe Biden has a huge advantage in major battlefield states, but it’s down in several states compared to the polls he saw last weekend. The following data shows the average of the most recent surveys (average surveys have significantly less inaccuracy than individual surveys):
- In georgia At the end of last week, its lead was still above 2 percentage points, now just 0.2 percentage points.
- In North Carolina most recently Biden was given a 1.5 percentage point lead, now just 0.2 percentage points.
- The most spectacular, however Pennsylvania, where Biden’s lead was even around 7-8 percentage points a couple of months ago, but only 3.7 percentage points.
- Respectively, the status of the competition was reversed. In iowa Also, where a Biden lead was still measured on Friday. However, this Member State is small and will be of the least importance.
However, there are Member States where the trend is just the opposite and Biden’s lead has increased compared to last week:
- In arizonaClassically a Republican member, he has steadily increased his lead as a Democratic nominee in recent weeks.
- In Florida Long ago there was such a gap between the parties, Biden almost doubled his lead in a few days, but still, that lead was narrow.
- Wisconsinban and Biden’s advantage had become almost negligible.
The latter can no longer be considered a true battlefield state, and in Arizona this lead is so narrow that it doesn’t actually increase Biden’s chances substantially.
How many member states does Trump have to win to convert?
If all were according to current polls, Joe Biden would win the election without a hitch, since there are many more member states where a democratic victory is certain than states that can be wrapped up by a Republican candidate (213-96 jobs in states with a predictable outcome defined in favor of Biden)). If the latest polls are accurate, Biden would have 352 electives and Trump 186 electives (the attached table shows the table of subsidies measured in each member state). Therefore, Biden would have to win fewer states on the battlefield to be president.
Trump, on the other hand, only needs to win 5 of the battlefield states where Biden is now leading him to remain president.
- You have to pull it North Carolina (15 voters), where Biden’s lead is just 0.3 percentage points, according to recent polls.
- Georgia (16 voters) should also bring where the difference is 0.2 percentage points in favor of Biden.
- You have to bring it Arizonat (11 voters), where the advantage of the Democratic candidate is 2.2 percentage points and has grown in recent days.
- You have to win Floridát (29 electricity), since the Member State is very populated to save the victory here. Here, Biden has a 3.1 percentage point lead and has grown in recent days.
- And you can’t save on Pennsylvania (20 voters), where while Biden’s lead still seems relatively large, the momentum is in Trump’s favor: He has trimmed a surprising amount from his disadvantage in recent days, and the polls were also big errors in 2016. This is especially true. important because if one were to say a state that victory could depend on, it could be Pennsylvania.
Also, of course, you have to enter the wavy states where it leads: Ohio, where it has a 0.9 percentage point advantage, Texas, where it leads by 1.6 percentage points. If Texas fails, the competition will be decided from then on, because it shows that the phenomenon of Trump’s under-detection does not exist this year. Trump’s situation is not hopeless at all, because
In the five Member States mentioned, the lag is, on average, only 1.9 percentage points.
The easiest to translate in Georgia and North Carolina, because there is a negligible advantage, Florida and Pennsylvania will be crazy tougher. Although the gap has narrowed in Pennsylvania, it is still the largest, at 3.7 percentage points, and in Florida, Biden’s lead has been growing these days. We have to pay close attention to Florida today, because there will be results in this state early in the morning in Hungarian time.
If Florida loses Trump, it will almost certainly fail in the presidential election.
This is because if you don’t get these 29 electricians, you will already have to go to Michigan and Wisconsin, which is next to impossible, because if you weren’t underrated in Florida at a 3% disadvantage, you most likely won’t go anywhere else. side. underestimated their support. So today we are looking at Florida and Ohio at sunrise, where there will also be results today: if Biden wins here next to Florida, there is nothing more to talk about, and if he loses Texas, where there will also be a result today, he will suffer a crushing defeat. If Trump wins Florida today, he attracts Texas and Ohio, it means that his chances of winning remain (although if he wins a large victory rate, we can conclude that the polls were again inaccurate and in other states he has more support than his size). In this case, the competition has yet to take place, and it won’t be for days, because then we are waiting for Pennsylvania, where they will only start adding votes by letter after the election.
Presidential elections are taking place in the United States today, with news and developments arriving almost constantly. Do not miss the latest developments, follow the evolution of the presidential election process with the Portfolio: click here to find all our articles, and we will follow the events in our article minute by minute throughout the day. The Portfolio reports on the event throughout the night, so if you follow us, you won’t have a chance to keep up with the latest developments from the world’s biggest event. After the election, we apply with fresh analysis and expert evaluations. Come with us!
Therefore, an official result is not expected today, but there is a chance that we could declare a Biden victory with great certainty today, but probably not a Trump victory (perhaps a full-scale victory in Florida could predict this, but we cannot predict a Republican victory even with great certainty).
However, one thing is for sure: for Trump to win, opinion polls still need to be flawed in several member states, deep down.
Surveys may be wrong now
This is exactly what happened in 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s support in pre-election days was greater than Trump’s, but the polls were big mistakes and Trump won the Electoral College without a hitch. We now see that Biden’s lead is greater in many member states than it was in 2016 for Clinton. Of the states below, Trump finally won everywhere in 2016.
If we compare the errors of 2016 with the current advantage of Biden, we see that in many Member States the advantage of Biden is smaller than the polls carried out in 2016 (in the following figure, the errors also mean to underestimate Trump, because without exception they were all in favor of Clinton). Wisconsin, for example, is likely to lose to Trump, but what he’s really worried about is Florida, where the polls were relatively accurate, and in this state, Biden’s lead is stable and has also grown. The situation is similar in Arizona. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, on the other hand, Trump may have reason to underestimate, but losing Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas and North Carolina won’t be enough for him.
So Florida and Pennsylvania are two states that you should definitely win, and in the first one, the competition will be decided today.
However, it must be said that, based on votes already cast, we conclude that Democratic turnout will be high, which may also mean that Trump’s underestimation is not as significant today. Most of the correspondents were Democrats, as Biden encouraged his supporters to do so, while Trump asked his voters for a personal presence. The proportion of early votes exceeded 68% of the total votes in 2016.
Finally, here is our model, according to which we have calculated the electoral college distribution. Polls in rolling states include today’s data, elsewhere polls are on Thursdays, but the competition has developed in these places. Throughout tonight, we will constantly update this model with partial results and recalculate the probabilities on a regular basis. Stay with us and you won’t miss a thing!
Cover image: Getty Images
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