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The most important political event of the past year was clearly the US presidential election, as the leadership of the world’s largest economy and political power is having an impact on every country in the world without exaggeration. This year, we cannot single out an event that is so dominant, but there will be several important options that are of global political importance.
At the beginning of the year, we will still feel the aftermath of the US presidential election: the two Georgian seats in the Senate elections were not decided (this was the state that used to tip Republicans, but Biden was able to win here in the elections presidential), so at the beginning of January they repeat the vote. The stakes are high: the majority of the Senate depends on these two presidents, and the gap between the two candidates is extremely acute. With 50-48 Senate jobs currently in favor of Republicans, and polls show they stand a better chance of winning a majority on January 5, so a Republican majority is expected to become the upper house of Congress from U.S. All this does not matter because without the Senate, the president would be almost incapable in several political areas, for example, Democrat Joe Biden would have less room for maneuver in economic policy, since the Republicans could easily cross his fiscal plans.
Another important event will be the inauguration of the Presidency on January 20, since Joe Biden will be President of the United States from that date, now officially. This ends the ordinary presidential election procedure. Biden’s first year has many questions: what kind of policy will China follow? When will he re-enter the international conventions from which Trump has withdrawn? How active will foreign policy be? The issue is also important for Hungary, as in Biden’s previous statements it appears that political relations will not be smooth.
Therefore, 2021 can also be seen as Biden’s introductory year, so American political events are likely to continue to carry the greatest weight.
The Portuguese presidential elections in January will be followed by a relatively long hiatus, the next major event will be the Dutch parliamentary elections. The Dutch vote also has a tinge of Hungarian implications, as in the debate on the EU veto at the end of last year, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was the main proponent of the rule of law criterion, compared to the first Hungarian Minister Viktor Orbán, who wanted a softer system of rule of law criteria. Orbán eventually came out better in the veto, but the VVD (Rutte’s party) could win big in the elections, increasing the number of its current parliamentary seats, according to polls.
the Israeli and the on the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria It’s also worth saying: in recent months, there has been a scandal surrounding big politics in Israel, it will be interesting to see how the electorate responds to this. Bulgaria decided in 2020 to embark on the path towards introducing the euro, but Prime Minister Boyko Borisov may even lose the elections, according to recent polls. Although his socialist opponent shows some Eurosceptic signs, we cannot expect a major earthquake in Bulgaria; however, as this will be one of the few European elections, we consider it worth mentioning.
A Scottish parliament The choice could also be interesting, as after Brexit, the desire for independence could awaken in Scots, as indicated by the Scottish National Party during the Brexit negotiations. This is how we should pay attention to the campaign and the messages. There will also be presidential elections in Iran in the summer, which is always interesting given the evolution of US-Iran relations. In Italy, the white semester begins in August (that is, the last half of the presidential term), when the president no longer has the right to dissolve parliament. – in theory, this significantly reduces the chances of Italian parliamentary elections in the six months after August, which could lead to a period of stable government, which is rare in the starting country.
A Hong Kong Parliament The choice was added to the list due to protests last year and measures by the Chinese government to restrict sovereignty in Hong Kong. We will mention it russian parliamentary elections is,
but the most important event of the year will undoubtedly be the German federal elections, where many problems remain.
Angela Merkel has vowed not to run for chancellor again, so the country is sure to have a new leader who will likely leave the CDU-CSU coalition. Several names have emerged as possible successors, but a decision will not be made on this until January.
The most important question is whether the new chancellor (either the CDU or, if the Christian Democratic Party is defeated, the SPD candidate) can occupy the space left after Merkel, as the most politically and economically weighted state leader Europe has an incomparable politics. His talent has smoothed out several conflicts within the EU in recent decades (but he has been a driver of reforms himself). Merkel’s successor will have to carry on the chancellor’s legacy of a decade and a half in a dignified way: she will have to work with the new US leadership and set the direction of transatlantic relations on the European side, managing EU conflicts. and maintaining internal political stability. Therefore, it also depends a lot on the German elections of 2021.
Cover image: Getty Images
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