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The UK government is preparing to change course on Huawei’s role in its 5G telecommunications network.
Six months after agreeing it could have a limited role, ministers appear to exclude the Chinese company, as new equipment will not be installed from next year.
The move is in part the result of pressure from Washington.
However, the precise time frame and details of the removal will be crucial in determining how the decision is received.
In January, after long delays and tough battles, the government announced that Huawei would stay out of the sensitive core of the 5G network and limit itself to 35% of its other parts’ market.
But now he is reviewing that decision.
A key reason is that the Trump administration has continued what a UK official calls a “relentless pressure” campaign on the company.
US officials have claimed that China could use the company as a gateway to “spy, steal, or attack” the United Kingdom. Huawei denies it, and its founder has said he would rather close the company than do something to harm its customers.
The new sanctions in May limited Huawei’s access to US chip technology.
That forced the UK’s National Cyber Security Center to launch a review to understand whether the use of alternative chips would reduce the level of security it could offer about Huawei’s presence in the UK.
But the decision will be as much about geopolitics and internal politics as about technicalities.
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Replacing Huawei’s 5G equipment will often involve simultaneously swapping its 4G base stations and antennas
Attitudes towards China have hardened in the past six months.
The coronavirus crisis, and Beijing’s handling of it, have raised concerns about China’s dependencies. And mounting tension over Hong Kong has raised concerns about whether China is becoming more authoritarian.
A major conservative backbench rebellion in March suggested that there were already many who wanted a tougher policy, and their confidence and numbers have been fueled by events in the intervening months.
But amid heavy lobbying by telecoms companies, which have warned of blackouts in mobile coverage if they are forced to quickly withdraw Huawei equipment, the government has been debating how fast to move.
A long wait for the Huawei kit to be removed in seven to 10 years would leave critics unhappy but would cause fewer disruptions.
Three to five years would appease them, but would impose far more costs due to the need to phase out existing Huawei equipment, which is sometimes integrated with 4G and earlier equipment.
If telecommunications networks are delayed with their 5G rollout as a result, it would be more difficult for the government to deliver on its promises to increase connectivity for the country in the coming years.
China may also seek some way to punish the United Kingdom, in part to discourage others from following its course.
But equally, if the new policy is deemed not harsh enough, then critics of the rear banks may continue their rebellion to push for a tighter time frame when the legislation is presented to parliament in the fall.
Whatever the case, a decision that has already been reversed once can still be discussed in the coming months.
