Zion Williamson’s rookie season has only five days left.
Even though they were 3.5 games back from the 8-seed in the West when the NBA season returned last month, the New Orleans Pelicans were a popular choice to reach the postseason and set a fierce matchup of ‘ the first round on between Williamson, this season’s No. 1 overall pick, and MVP LeBron James by four times. However, things did not go as planned for the Pelicans and their young star, who saw his minutes limited in the early campus action and have been an extreme liability on the defensive end.
With that in mind, we asked three of our experts to provide their insight into Williamson’s game in the bubble and what it means for the future of the Pelicans, both immediate and long term.
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Zion in Orlando until now
Zion Williamson was the main attraction at Walt Disney World for the expected push of the New Orleans Pelicans to a playoff location of the Western Conference. On the opening night of NBA bubble action, the Pelicans were shown on national television, as most of their games have been.
And indeed, Williamson has been a hot topic – though not always for the reasons the Pelicans as the league hoped when the seeding game plan was announced.
Williamson missed 13 days of basketball activity – July 16 to July 24, while he was out of the bubble for an excused absence and then another four days quarantine. The Pelicans ‘plan included limited minutes early – “short bursts” – and kept him out of half of New Orleans’ only back-to-back in the bubble.
New Orleans vice president of basketball operations David Griffin said every player on the team has come up with a plan, and Williamson’s was affected by missing the three scrimmage games. When he returned, Williamson looked somewhat sluggish.
In his first game, against the Utah Jazz, Williamson had 13 points in 15 minutes, but recorded no rebound for the first time in his career. He struggled to find his footing in his second game, against the LA Clippers, scoring a career-low seven points in 14 minutes.
Williamson began to look like himself in his third game, against Memphis, when he had 23 points, seven rebounds and five assists in a win. He continued his offensive rise with 24 points on 10-of-12 shots in just under 22 minutes against the Sacramento Kings.
Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram said Williamson is back in the fold to reduce matters for the team on the offensive end.
“Well, we know what to expect when he’s in the lineup,” Ingram said on August 3. “If he’s in the lineup, he’s going to make a direct impact. is a willing passerby. “
Williamson had seven assists in his past two games, the most he has had in a span of two games in his short career. His passing helps unlock another level of Pelicans’ offense, and the team’s offensive rating has been 110.7 when he’s been on the court the past two games.
The defensive end, where Williamson still has to register a block as a steal, has been a different story altogether. – Andrew Lopez
Zion’s defense is declining
Williamson is perhaps the brightest young star in the NBA, and coming into the bubble, it was clear that the 19-year-old phenomenon was already good enough to make the Pelicans a legitimate playoff candidate. Do you want proof? No five-man lineup in the entire league had a better net rating than Williamson and his four starting teammates. None.
Before returning to the season, the Pelicans’ starting lineup had posted a net rating of bunkers of plus-26.3 (points per 100 possessions), the best of the 34 NBA lineups that shared at least 200 minutes of playing time.
The Pelicans’ starters looked great from the time Sion made his debut in January, especially on defense, allowing a rolling low of 91.6 points per 100 possessions.
But in the bubble, as noted, it has been a different story. In the relatively few minutes Williamson plays, he looks slower and less engaged on defense, and the Pelicans flutter when he’s in the game.
Here are the receptions:
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Before the bubble, with Zion on the floor, the Pelicans had a net rating of plus-10.4, which is excellent. (That included lineups when Williamson was teamed up with Pelicans reservations.) But when he was off the court, they had a net rating of minus-3.5.
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Now the whole deal has turned itself around. In the bubble, the Pelicans fight Zion op the floor, with an awful minus-22.8 net rating. It is getting stranger: As Zion is out the floor, the Pelicans have a net rating of plus-6.8.
The effect is especially obvious on defense. The biggest problem has been on the perimeter, where Williamson’s lack of awareness and inconsistent effort has been costly. Fur opponents hit 45% of their three-pointers when Sion is in the game in Orlando, in part because Williamson has been an easy goal on the sidelines.
Here is one of many examples:
Hustle points.
📺 @FoxSportsWest | @ patbev21 pic.twitter.com/hVJMAl7Yrp
– LA Clippers (@LAClippers) August 1, 2020
Again, the stats support what we can see. With Zion in the game in Orlando, New Orleans did not stop anyone, giving up an incredible 128.4 points per 100 possessions. But the Pelicans are kneeling when Zion is out, allowing 102.5 points per 100.
Williamson obviously remains one of the best prospects this league has seen in years. But to get his team to the playoffs this season, he needs to start playing better defense right away. – Kirk Goldsberry
How the pelicans continue to build around Zion
The seven-year-old Zion Williamson clock began last year when the New Orleans Pelicans agreed to trade Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers and selected Williamson with the first pick in the 2019 draft.
From the Lakers, they received Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and future draft picks, and formed the basis for success that never seems to come together after the Pelicans drafted Davis in 2012.
Seven years is the amount of time between 2019 and when Williamson can leave as an unlimited free agent, if he follows the usual path of signing an extension. For example, LeBron James was drafted by Cleveland in 2003 and left for Miami in 2010. Davis was also in New Orleans for seven years, albeit under slightly different circumstances.
As we saw with both James and Davis, making the playoffs is not enough for some superstars. They want to go where they can collaborate and compete for championships. It’s the Pelicans’ job to make that happen in New Orleans.
This offseason will include several important steps: The first step will bring Ingram back when he hits limited free agency on October 18th. Whether they want to pay him the full maximum or not, the 22-year-old All-Star is very likely to get that kind of deal – probably in New Orleans.
Step 2 will be to make a decision about the future of Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans could discuss an expansion with him, or they could trade him for a year or two before hitting free agency (Vacation has a player option in 2021). In addition to the young players on rookie contracts, the 30-year-old guard is the Pelicans’ best trading post, and they should not take the risk of running for nothing.
The third decision includes rookie extensions for Ball and Hart. If the Pelicans can both sign on to team-friendly deals that provide salary capability for 2021-22 and future years, then they should. If not, they can wait and play things for another year.
Fourth, they need to determine the value of their entire concept assets and how they deploy them. Including their own and two of the Lakers, the Pelicans have nine first-round picks (and a potential pick-swap) in the next seven years – not to mention 10 draft picks of the second round in the next four years.
How patient will they be? Will they decide to make and develop most of those picks? Or will they combine some into a blockbuster trade rather than a series of trades?
Keep in mind that four-year rookie contracts are below market value and the Pelicans will keep a close eye on their salaries as their young stars become more expensive.
Of course, with the Pelicans already a playoff fan, they will be asked to shop for the next disgruntled All-Star to ask out. Could that be a player like Bradley Beal or Victor Oladipo?
That would reverse the role of the Pelicans, and put them on the opposite side of the table when Davis forced his way out of New Orleans.
However, the Pelicans have a lot of good options and a lot at stake this offseason and the next few years as they try to keep Williamson healthy and happy. – Bobby Marks
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