How to win the fight on the statues and confederate bases.

President Donald Trump wants a fight for the Confederacy. On Tuesday night, responding to legislation that would remove the names of Confederate generals from U.S. military bases, Trump threatened to block funding for the military. “I will veto the defense authorization bill,” he tweeted, if it includes an amendment that “would lead to the name change … of Fort Bragg, Fort Robert E. Lee and many other military bases from which we won two world wars.” .

It is grotesque that a president, in the midst of a protest against police violence against blacks, choose the Confederacy as his uncompromising cause. But politically, the Trump movement is not stupid. Polls done in the past month suggest that this fight may be a winner for him. To beat him, to rename the bases, remove the Confederate statues, and make the fight costly for Trump, advocates of change must learn from the polls.

Two weeks ago, a Politico / Morning Consult poll asked whether the Pentagon should “rename military bases named after Confederate leaders” or “leave names” as they are. A plurality of voters, 48 ​​percent to 33 percent, said names should be left alone. Trump’s position was a winner with independents, moderates, and suburbanites. He was also preferred by voters who somewhat disapproved of his job performance or who expressed a somewhat unfavorable opinion about him. In short, it is a problem you could use to get back into the elections.

But Trump’s opponents could frame the problem differently. In early June, a VoteVets / Public Policy Polling poll asked: “The US Army currently operates ten major facilities named after Confederate military commanders. The Marine Corps and Navy recently banned all Confederation-related paraphernalia from bases around the world. Would you support or oppose a similar ban on Confederate imagery across the Army, including renaming certain Army bases? When the question was asked this way, in terms of “paraphernalia” and a military cleanup that was already underway, a plurality of voters, including a plurality of independents, supported a ban.

Most surveys of Confederate generals have focused on statues. Here, too, Trump has an advantage. In a Morning Consult poll conducted this week, a plurality of independents, moderates, suburban and general voters agreed that “statues of Confederate leaders must remain standing” instead of “being knocked down.” Again, the president’s position was attractive to voters who disapproved or viewed him unfavorably.

The numbers get even better for Trump if he can drag American Founders into the fray. In a Yahoo News poll conducted last week, voters were highly divided on whether “statues of Confederate generals” should be removed. (Forty-one percent favored removal; 46 percent opposed it.) But when the poll asked about “statues of American presidents who owned slaves, like Washington, Jefferson, and Jackson,” voters overwhelmingly opposed removing them. The consensus against the expulsion included a plurality of Democrats and a plurality of people who said they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden against Trump.

Trump also benefits if he can focus the debate on the ad hoc destruction of protesters. In a Harvard / Harris poll conducted two weeks ago, more than 60 percent of Democrats, and of people who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, agreed that “statues of Confederate figures” should be removed. But Democrats and Clinton voters also agreed, roughly by the same margins, that local governments should “prevent groups from physically destroying” these statues.

Biden understands Trump’s game and is not playing it. In an exchange with journalists on Tuesday, the former vice president rejected the ad hoc destruction and distinguished the founders from the Confederation leaders. “It is always better to do it peacefully,” he said of the dismantling of statues. But “if someone knocks down the Jefferson Davis statue,” added Biden, that is “fundamentally different” from destroying “the Jefferson Memorial.”

This week’s Morning Consult poll offers some advice on how to turn voters against Trump’s position. She asked a series of questions that begin with this preface: “Some Americans are calling for the removal of statues or monuments with racist ties. In your opinion, do you think that the statues or properties in honor of each of the following types of figures should be removed / renamed or not? A plurality of voters, 46 percent to 38 percent, said the statues of “Confederate military leaders and political figures” should be left alone. But as the poll targeted other honorees, the balance of opinion turned against Trump. In the numbers that “owned slaves,” voters divided equally by 40 percent. In the numbers that “made racist comments,” a plurality, 45 percent to 34 percent, favored elimination. In the numbers that “supported racist policies,” the plurality for elimination was 50 to 33 percent.

At first glance, these numbers are puzzling. How can Confederate leaders get better scores than leaders who “supported racist policies”? The answer seems to be that most whites, along with a plurality of independents and moderates, see Confederate statues as symbols of “southern pride,” not racism. To convince them that the statues must descend or that the bases must be renamed, you must focus not on the Confederacy, but on specific racist events and statements by the figures honoring those statues or bases.

Once the statues have been removed, people seem to be fine with that. Three weeks ago, an Economist poll asked voters whether they approved or disapproved of “the decision to remove Confederate statues in Mobile, Alabama and Richmond, Virginia.” A plurality, 46 percent to 41 percent, approved. The absence of the overthrown monuments becomes the new status quo. The same dynamic is likely with military bases: Fort Bragg becomes Fort Johnson, and life goes on.

In the long run, the Trump side will lose. A healthy plurality of voters under the age of 35 says that the bases that honor Confederate leaders should be renamed, and a plurality of each age group under 65 supports renaming them as part of a ban on Confederate imagery. Most young voters also agree that Confederate statues should go down. And this new generation is unlikely, over time, to somehow develop an attachment to generals who fought for the wrong and losing side in a 150-year war. But first, they need to make sure this fight doesn’t help the wrong side in November.