The Milwaukee Bucks are the big favorites to get out of the Eastern Conference. According to Caesars Sportsbook, they enter the bubble at minus 230 to reach the NBA Finals in October.
Still, respect for Las Vegas is one thing, but execution in Orlando is another. While the Bucks have the best record in the league, the reigning MVP, and the best defense, these guys are beaten. Ask world champion Toronto Raptors, who eliminated them last year with a simple plan that could be repeated again this year.
With the Boston Celtics facing the Bucks in each team’s reboot debut on Friday (6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN), these are the three rules any contender must follow to defeat the monster in Milwaukee.
Rule 1: keep Giannis away from the cube
Giannis Antetokounmpo enters the bubble as the most efficient volume scorer in the league. He is currently posting an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 58.3% this season, the highest mark among the top 50 scorers in the NBA.
As it does? Dunks and layups, many of them. Just look at this:
More than almost any other modern superstar, Antetokounmpo dominates with an old-school shooting location. His impressive overall efficiency numbers come from his abilities around the world to attack and end up on the shelf. If you can keep it out of the paint, it’s deadly. If you can’t, it’s over.
Consider these two statistics:
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This season Antetokounmpo has attempted 727 shots in the paint and converted 66% of them. Of 81 NBA players with at least 300 paint shots this season, he is the fifth most efficient.
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He has also attempted 393 shots without paint. His eFG% on those attempts is only 43.6%. Out of 116 players with at least 300 shots without paint, it ranks 109th in efficiency.
Basically it’s Shaquille O’Neal in the painting, but Andrew Wiggins is out of it. Shaq won four titles by dominating the interior. If Milwaukee wins one this year, it will be because no one could stifle Antetokounmpo’s inner prowess. But when the Bucks bounced back last year, Toronto did exactly that.
During the 2018-19 regular season, Antetokounmpo led the league averaging 17.5 points per game in the paint. His dominance extended to the postseason as Milwaukee went 8-1 in the first two rounds. But after Toronto head coach Nick Nurse moved Kawhi Leonard to Giannis, the Raptors won four games by containing the NBA’s most dangerous inside scorer.
In Milwaukee’s 10 postseason wins last season, Giannis averaged 15.8 PPG vs. 10.8 PPG in all five losses.
The good news for Bucks fans is that Leonard is in Los Angeles now. The bad news is that he and the Raps gave the league a road map. If a team can figure out how to slow down Giannis’ inner spin, history could repeat itself.
It may not be so far-fetched. Two potential second-round opponents have already found success here.
At Christmas in Philadelphia, Giannis made just 6 of 15 paint shots when the Philadelphia 76ers beat the Bucks by 12. Brett Brown used a combination of Al Horford and Joel Embiid to defend Giannis and keep him off the edge.
A few months later, Antetokounmpo made 5 of 10 paint shots when Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat held Milwaukee to just 89 points in an impressive 16-point victory. (If there is a defender in the East that should scare the Bucks, it is Adebayo.)
Milwaukee should still be favored to beat Miami or Philly in a seven-game series, but matchups are key in the playoffs. Both teams have already shown that they could slow down the MVP and put the responsibility on Milwaukee’s secondary pieces.
Rule 2: Make Middleton beat you
Speaking of secondary options, Khris Middleton has been amazing this season. He’s become a 50/40/90 type shooter, an NBA All-Star, and, of course, a very rich man. He’s in the first year of a five-year, $ 178 million contract because the Bucks believe he can make a difference when it matters most.
Middleton has become one of the league’s most efficient volume shooters. Just look at this:
But when the Bucks needed Middleton to thrive in the Toronto series last year, he went the other way. Milwaukee gave the opportunity to go up 3-0 in a six-point loss in Game 3, with Middleton shooting 3-for-16 and recording nine points in over 44 minutes. Oof Then, with the series tied 2-2 in Game 5 at home, Middleton did not respond, going 2-for-9 in 36 minutes. Again, the Bucks lost by six. The rest is Canadian history.
Antetokounmpo has become a perennial MVP candidate because he is the fiercest two-way player in the world. But his case is also sometimes helped by just looking at the big games. He can easily seem much more valuable than any other player on his team. Middleton could definitely change that in the bubble, but you can bet Bucks’ opponents will design their game plans for you to try.
Rule 3: Do your 3s
At the other end of the court, Mike Budenholzer’s top-rated defense protects the tire at all costs while challenging opponents to beat them with bridges. It is an extreme dichotomy: no team in the league has yielded fewer points in the paint, and no team has given more 3-point points.
His defensive philosophy is based on the premise that not everything can be effectively protected. Given their huge staff at the front of the Lopez and Giannis twins, the Bucks can master tire protection and defensive glass, while spending fewer resources on edge clearance.
No team has given up more 3-pointers than the Bucks. Milwaukee has given 1,301 3-point attempts (7.6 per game) with the closest defender at least six feet away, following Second Spectrum. While it is a risky game, overall it has worked well. The Bucks have been the most efficient defense in the league in each of Budenholzer’s two seasons. But when the shooters heat up, the Bucks defense can fail, which is what happened against the Raptors.
Go back to the last four games of those conference finals, when new dad and Canadian folk hero Fred VanVleet caught fire and made 15 of his 25 3-point attempts. That’s wild
While VanVleet is a good 3-point shooter, he is not Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson. Most NBA teams now have shooters capable of catching fire. All of the Bucks’ main eastern rivals, Toronto, Boston, and Miami, jut out from the city center, and all boast snipers capable of VanVleeting for a few games, punishing Milwaukee’s tendency to give up juicy downtown looks.
Here’s a sample of eastern snipers and their 3-point open numbers:
The league is now chock-full of snipers, but looking at that table, some teams have more players who are better suited to Milwaukee’s defense. Miami appears to be in a unique position to punish Milwaukee’s defensive approach, and that’s more than hypothetical. Miami is 2-0 against Milwaukee this season, in part because of Adebayo, and in part because its shooters have made 42% of their triples and racked up 51 points per game from center in those wins.
The point is that what happened before could happen again. Milwaukee deserves to be the favorite in the East, but the Bucks are not invincible. Just ask Fred VanVleet.
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