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By Julie Steinhaisen and Kate Calland
CHICAGO, March March (Reuters) – University of Washington pathologist Chris Murray, whose worldwide estimates of covid-1 infections and deaths are being followed, is changing perceptions about the course of the epidemic.
Murray recently hoped that the discovery of many effective vaccines would help in immunization of the population in the country, or almost eliminate transmission through the combination of inoculation and previous infections. But in the past month, vaccine trial data in South Africa have shown that a rapidly spreading coronavirus variant can mitigate the effects of the vaccine, even avoiding natural immunity in previously infected people.
“I can’t sleep,” Murray, director of the Seattle-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Reuters after seeing the data. “When will it end?” He asked himself, referring to the epidemic. It is currently updating its model for the ability of variables to survive natural immunity and expects to provide new estimates earlier this week.
A new consensus is also emerging among scientists, according to interviews with 18 Rotar experts who are closely monitoring the epidemic or working to contain its effects. Many described how the success of two vaccines with about 95% effectiveness against COVID-19 at the end of last year raised hopes that the virus could be contained in large quantities, the way measles is.
But, he says, recent weeks of data on new types in South Africa and Brazil have cut that optimism. They now believe that SARS-COV-2 will not only remain with us as a local virus, spreading continuously in communities, but will cause a significant load of illness and death in the years to come.
As a result, scientists said, people can expect to continue to take steps during COVID-19 surgery, especially for those at high risk, by wearing regular masks and avoiding crowded spaces.
Even after the vaccination, “I still want to wear a mask if there is any change,” said Dr. Biden, the U.S. president’s chief medical adviser. Anthony Fawcett said in an interview. “All you need is a little flick of the second dose of one variable (sparking), and you are predicted when life returns to normal.
Some scientists, including Murray, agree that the view could be improved. New vaccines, which have been developed at an evolving pace, still appear to prevent hospitalization and death when new forms are the cause of infection. Many vaccine developers are working on booster shots and new inoculations that can deliver a higher level of effectiveness against variants. And, scientists say, much remains to be learned about the immune system’s ability to fight off viruses.
Already in many countries since the beginning of 2021, the rate of Covid-19 infection has decreased, with serious illness in the first groups of vaccinations and some dramatic reduction in hospitalizations.
Were doing the flu
Murray said if South African types, or similar mutants, continue to spread rapidly, the number of COVID-19 cases hospitalized or killed in the coming winter could be four times higher than the flu. It is estimated that half of the country’s population is vaccinated at 65%. In the worst case scenario, it could represent 200,000 U.S. deaths related to COVID-19 during the winter, based on federal government estimates of annual flu deaths.
His organization’s current forecast, which runs through June 1, assumes that by then there will be an additional 62,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 and 690,000 global deaths. This model includes assumptions about vaccination rates as well as the transmissibility of South African and Brazilian variables.
The change in the mindset of scientists has affected more cautious government statements about when the epidemic will end. Britain said last week that, despite a rapid vaccination drive, it expects a slower recovery from the world’s toughest lockdown.
The U.S. to return to a more normal lifestyle. Government forecasts have been repeatedly pushed back, mostly from late summer to Christmas and then until March 2022. Israel has issued “Green Pass” immunization documents to people who have recovered from the Covid-19 or been vaccinated, allowing them to return to hotels or theaters. The documents are only valid for six months as it is not clear how long the immune system will last.
“What does it mean to go through this epidemic crisis phase,” said Stephen Barrell, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health. “While some experts have asked whether countries can completely eradicate any case of COVD-19 through vaccines and strict lockdowns, Baral sees the goals as more humble, but meaningful.” In my mind, it’s not that hospitals are full, ICUs Not packed, and people don’t go through tragic times. “
“Scientific Whiplash”
From the beginning, the new coronavirus has been a dynamic target.
At the onset of the epidemic, leading scientists warned that the virus could become a local epidemic and “never go away”, said Dr. Including Michael Ryan.
Yet they had a lot to learn, including whether it was possible to develop a vaccine against the virus and how it would change quickly. Will it be more like measles, which can be kept at bay almost entirely in communities with inoculation or flu rates, infecting millions globally each year?
For most of 2020, many scientists were surprised and convinced that the coronavirus had not changed enough to become more transmissible or fatal.
A big success in November. Pfizer Inc. and its German partner Bionettech SE as well as Moderna Inc. stated that their vaccine is about 95% effective in preventing COVID-19 in clinical trials, an efficacy rate that is much higher than that of any flu.
At least some of the scientists who visited said that even with these results, they did not expect the vaccine to eradicate the virus. But many told Reuters that the data also raised hopes within the scientific community that COVID-19 could be virtually eliminated only if the world was vaccinated quickly.
“We were very optimistic before Christmas with those first vaccines,” said Ezra Gani, president of the Infectious Diseases Epidemic at Imperial College London. “We did not expect such high-effectiveness vaccines to be possible in the first generation.”
Optimism proved short-lived. In late December, the UK warned of a new, more transmissible variant that is rapidly becoming a predominant form of coronavirus in the country. At the same time, researchers learned about the effects of rapidly spreading variables in South Africa and Brazil.
Pfizer Dormitzer, Pfizer’s top vaccine scientist, told Reuters in November that U.S. The drugmaker’s vaccine success showed the virus to be “susceptible to immunity,” in what he called “a breakthrough for humanity.” In early January, he acknowledged the so-called “new chapter” variants, in which companies must constantly monitor for changes that could weaken the effectiveness of the vaccine.
In late January, the effect on vaccines became even clearer. Clinical trial data from NovavX showed that the vaccine was 89% effective in UK trials, but only 50% effective in preventing COVID-19 in South Africa. One week later, the AstraZeneca PLC vaccine was shown to offer limited protection against mild disease against the South African variant.
The most recent change in heart rate was significant, some scientists told Reuters. Shane Crottie, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in San Diego, described it as a “scientific whiplash”: in December, he said it was sensible to achieve the so-called “functional emission” of coronavirus like measles.
Now, “vaccinating as many people as possible is still the same answer and the way it was on December 1 or January 1,” Croty said, “but the expected result is not the same.”
(Reporting by Julie Steinhuisen in Chicago and Kate Calland in London; Additional reporting by Michael Irman in New York; Editing by Michael Gerschberg and Cassell Bryan-Law)
Our Standards: Principles of the Thomson Reuters Trust.
