[Updated 6/25/2020] Where are the key vaccine efforts currently located?
Modern (NASDAQ: MRNA) He is seen as the leader in the race to develop a Covid-19 vaccine. The clinical stage biotechnology company has phase 2 trials underway for its mRNA-1273 vaccine candidate and is expected to begin phase 3 trials in July, in collaboration with the US National Institutes of Health. CEO Stephane Bancel recently estimated the probability of vaccine success at about 80% to 90%, citing the effectiveness of the company’s RNA-based platform on other viruses such as MERS, Zika, and Cytomegalovirus. [[[[one]
German biotech company BioNTech is working on a Covid-19 vaccine in association with Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). While the development uses modern messenger RNA technology similar to Moderna, this effort focuses on not just one, but four prototypes. The vaccine is in phase 1/2 of clinical trials in the US and Germany, and the first set of study results is likely to be available in the coming weeks. [[[[two] There’s also the possibility that phase 3 trials could start as early as July, according to the Wall Street Journal. [[[
The Pharma Bellwether Johnson & Johnson vaccine is expected to begin phase 1 / 2a trials during the second half of July. This is ahead of the company’s initial September timeline. The company could have an advantage over its rivals in terms of production capacity and scope of distribution, and has indicated that its goal is to supply more than a billion doses worldwide throughout 2021 if the vaccine is safe and effective.
Did you know that Moderna stocks increased more than 3 times this year, while BioNTech increased 40% due to progress in Covid-19 vaccines? In comparison, Johnson and Johnson and Pfizer have fallen as of the year t0 date. What actions offer a better risk to reward the profile? Discover more at Trefis Topic: Coronavirus Vaccine that details the financial, valuation keys and returns metrics for companies.
[Updated 6/12/2020] What to Expect While Moderna Plans Phase 3 Trials
Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) has outlined plans for phase 3 clinical trials for its Covid-19 mRNA-1273 vaccine candidate, due to start in July and expected to include some 30,000 participants. Phase 3 trials will primarily study the efficacy of the vaccine in preventing symptomatic Covid-19 disease, and secondly, the prevention of severe Covid-19 cases requiring hospitalization. [[[[4 4] Moderna also provided an update on its phase 2 trials that are currently ongoing, noting that it had enrolled 350 of the total 600 planned participants for the study.
Moderna also said it is on track to deliver approximately 500 million doses of the vaccine per year, and potentially up to 1 billion doses per year, starting in 2021, taking advantage of its in-house manufacturing site in the US, as well as a strategic collaboration with Lonza, a Swiss biotech company. Overall, the pharmaceutical industry is moving much faster than expected with the development of the Covid-19 vaccine. In perspective, each phase of vaccine development generally takes several years, and according to a 2013 study, the average total vaccine development time was approximately 11 years. [[[[5 5]
Did you know that Johnson & Johnson will begin human testing of their Covid-19 vaccine during the second half of July, well before their previous September schedule? J&J can also offer downward protection against biotech in the clinical stage like Moderna, given its diversified source of income. Find out more in our dashboard analysis Johnson & Johnson Rating: Expensive or cheap?
[Updated 6/2/2020] Moderna moves to crucial phase 2 trials
Moderna said it started Stage 2 trials for its new candidate for the Coronavirus mRNA-1273 vaccine last week. The company intends to enroll a total of 600 participants in the study, compared to 45 participants in the phase 1 study. However, testing should be faster, as Moderna said it is looking to begin testing the phase 3 for July. Phase 2 trials can be considered more crucial compared to other phases for a couple of reasons. While phase 1 trials are used to determine the safety of a vaccine or treatment in humans, phase 2 trials measure effectiveness and also provide more data on its safety. Also, the progression from phase 2 to phase 3 may be more difficult for pharmaceutical companies. According to historical data, the probability of success of a drug going from phase 1 of clinical trials to phase 2 is approximately 63%, while the metric is much less than 31% for the progression of phase 2 to phase 3. For phase 3 of the new drug application, a stage just before approval, the POS stands at 58%.
That makes Moderna’s pipeline beyond the Covid-19 vaccine It seems? Good to know, as the stock rose 3 times this year, driven largely by the Coronavirus, meaning the downside risk could also be considerable.
[Updated 5/15/2020] Moderna’s recent progress
Moderna has made significant progress with its candidate for the Coronavirus vaccine – mRNA-1273 – in recent weeks as it obtained FDA approval to begin phase 2 clinical trials and noted that it was finalizing the protocol for a study of phase 3, which is expected to start early summer. This is ahead of the previously anticipated fall timeline for phase 3 trials. Separately, the experimental vaccine also received the fast-track designation from the US FDA, essentially helping to speed up the regulatory process. . At this rate, the company could be on track to get full approval for the vaccine by next year. This places Moderna well ahead of its rivals in the clinical trials timeline: Inovio’s candidate for rival biotech is in phase 1, while many other US-based players remain in the phase. preclinical. Moderna has also announced a collaboration with the Swiss-based Lonza Group to manufacture its vaccine, producing up to one billion doses each year.
Our indicative list of 7 US-listed companies working on Coronavirys vaccines, including Moderna, Inovio, and others, have yielded 200% annual returns on an equally weighted basis. For more details on these actions and your finances, see Trefis Topic: Coronavirus Vaccine Portfolio
[Updated 4/23/2020] An Overview of Stocks of Coronavirus Vaccines
While markets have fallen due to the spread of the new coronavirus, the actions of pharmaceutical companies developing vaccines and treatments for the highly contagious viral infection have been successful. While vaccine bets are still quite speculative, given that most companies are in the preclinical or phase 1 phase of testing for their candidates, companies could see a significant advantage if they develop a safe vaccine, effective and relatively affordable. For example, the addressable potential market for a vaccine could be more than 7.5 billion (the world population) compared to ~ 2.5 million today for potential coronavirus therapies. Our indicative portfolio of 7 US-listed companies developing coronavirus vaccines has gained 130% annually to date on an equally weighted basis.
While the actions of smaller, more specialized players like Inovio Pharmaceuticals and Moderna have increased by ~ 250% and ~ 160% respectively to date, as both companies already have candidates in Phase 1 trials, these companies also have a much higher risk, given its very limited income streams. On the other hand, large pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson (up to 5% to date) and Sanofi (up to 4%), which remain in the preclinical stage, could offer better downside protection, due to their flows highly diversified income. . For more details on the stock price and fundamental performance of some of the key US companies developing a coronavirus vaccine, check out our COVID vaccine portfolio
Modern (+ 160% annual return, market capitalization of $ 16.8 billion): Moderna was the first to start phase 1 clinical trials for its RNA-based vaccine. The company is expected to receive up to $ 483 million in funds from the United States federal government for the development of its vaccine. Moderna says that phase 2 testing could start as early as spring 2020, and that phase 3 testing could start as early as fall.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals (+ 255% annual return, $ 1.7 billion market cap): Inovio, a small biotech company, started the phase 1 clinical trial for a new DNA-based coronavirus vaccine earlier this month. While the company is ahead of the largest companies to come up with human testing for its vaccine candidate, it could remain a speculative gamble for investors, due to its relatively limited revenue streams (just $ 4 million in revenue). during 2019).
Novavax (440% annual return, market capitalization of $ 1.1 billion): Novavax, a company that focuses on vaccines for infectious diseases, has indicated that it has a candidate vaccine called NVX-CoV2373 that has been shown to be effective against coronavirus in preclinical trials. That said, the stock could also carry a significant downside risk, as the company has no other product on the market besides a flu shot that is in the final stages of development.
Johnson & Johnson (+ 5% annual return, $ 390 billion market capitalization): The pharmaceutical giant could start phase 1 trials for its coronavirus vaccine in September 2020 at the latest. The company could have an advantage over its rivals in terms of production capacity and scope of distribution, as it says it could produce up to 900 million doses in early 2021. In addition, the company is also working on antiviral treatments for the coronavirus. .
Sanofi (-4% annual return, $ 120 billion market capitalization): Sanofi has joined forces with GlaxoSmithKline to develop a coronavirus vaccine. While Sanofi will contribute the antigen, GSK will provide its pandemic adjuvant technology, which helps reduce the amount of vaccine protein required per dose. Sanofi is also exposed to possible COVID-19 treatments, as the company makes the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine, which is being considered as a possible treatment, while trying another treatment in association with Regeneron.
Are treatments, vaccines, or test stocks the best way to play coronavirus recovery? See our indicative topics Coronavirus treatment actions, and Coronavirus tests for more details on the share price and fundamental performance of some of the top US listed companies.
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