With election day less than 100 days away, President Donald Trump and his top political advisers are barely lifting a finger to expand their coalition of potential voters. Instead, they desperately try to convert Republicans, prevent their base from fracturing, and avoid conservative defections that would seal their fate as a “loser” who describes himself in one term.
It is an electoral strategy that has left other members of the Republican Party equally bewildered and paralyzed, fearful of the president’s anger, but also confused as to why he is making no sustained effort to expand his electoral coalition.
“The President has tremendous power to talk about. And he’s deviated a bit by talking about what the media wants me to talk about, “said Barry Bennett, a Republican agent and lobbyist who served as Trump’s top adviser during the 2016 race.” You should be tweeting photos of returning people. to work … Let’s see some photos of those people … The media will not help you tell the good news. You have to do it yourself. And you should use your platform for that.
Despite such dismay and his own porous poll, Trump has shown no desire to change. Instead, he stubbornly let the personal complaint dictate many of his public statements. That mindset was evident this weekend, when Trump wrote a single tweet that hit three pillars of influence on the right: guardians of the legacy of former President Ronald Reagan; the last Republican speaker in the House; and the most powerful conservative cable news network.
“I thought, ‘Damn, he got in there a lot,'” one Republican strategist lamented the tweet. “The base is the part that you can control the most. But there are times when he sees his base as a larger portion of the Republican voting bloc than it is. There are many Republicans who can be obtained outside of the cultural issues in which he plays. “
Trump’s tweet may have been born out of frustration that the Reagan Foundation, Paul Ryan, and Fox News were not being subservient and grateful enough for their presidency. But it was also a reflection of broader anxiety at Trumpworld’s top levels that the president’s conservative base, which Trump and the party have long touted as rock solid and fiercely loyal, may be starting to break in between of the coronavirus pandemic, a weakening US economy and protest movements following the police murder of George Floyd. It is a concern that some close associates of the President have raised directly with him.
“I said I should believe in him [public] polls, and that shows that, as things are going, part of his base may drop him in the election, “said a Republican who spoke to Trump about the issue earlier this month.” That’s what the numbers say. ”
This source added that the president ignored the suggestion and said that this person was being “ridiculous” for considering the idea that his base would ever fracture.
Part of Trump’s confidence in the resistance of his base is due to the fact that he cares so much. In several key political arenas, the President has dismissed any claim to go beyond Trump fans. Earlier this year, he and his senior staff made it clear that they intended to participate in part in criminal justice reform and attack Joe Biden, the alleged 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, for his “tough” past. against crime. ” It was an effort complemented by a $ 10 million Super Bowl ad purchase and aimed to depress Biden’s black voter turnout. But shortly after the Floyd murder, Trump and senior officials were completely bored with even the most modest of police reforms and opted to fully adopt an iron fist stance.
“I understand why you don’t like Fox polls. But tweeting about it won’t give you a vote.“
“I’m not sure there are a lot of undecided people in this country, so it’s more a matter of attending to their base and expelling them,” added Bennett. “I understand why you don’t like Fox polls. But tweeting about it won’t give you a vote.”
At times, Trump and his team have tried, at least symbolically, to go beyond that first-base mindset. In his 2016 campaign, he made repeated proposals to Democratic voters of the traditional working class to back him based on trade deals that his own party had closed. After his election, he tried to recruit Democrats to his cabinet, and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) met with him during the transition, and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) was often rumored for various positions. Trump even got West Virginia Governor Jim Justice to swap parties, a feat the president managed to redo with Rep. Jeff Van Drew during impeachment proceedings.
But those efforts have either failed or become less serious. Manchin never bit the hook. And Gabbard not only kept his distance, but quickly supported Biden despite rampant speculation that he would play a spoiler role in this cycle.
On December 19, 2019, the Trump campaign formally launched “Democrats for Trump” to, in his words, “engage disaffected Democrats.” In the email announcing the group, then-campaign manager Brad Parscale directed those interested to www.Democrats.DonaldJTrump.com. “Today, that page is nothing more than a registration form. There’s not a single name. of Democrats supporting the reelection of the President, and the entire case filed for Democrats to make the change are a few lines criticizing “coastal elitists and left-wing radicals.”
Trump’s refusal to modify his base-only approach has had ramifications on the ballot. Senate Republicans, recognize Republican operatives, could theoretically benefit by standing before voters as a bulwark against a likely Biden presidency. But they have been reluctant to do so. And those strategists argue that it is because they have concluded that their own destinies are tied to the enthusiasm of the Trump base.
“To the extent that these [Senate] The races remain a presidential referendum by proxy, Republicans carry all of Trump’s luggage in the eyes of his enemies without necessarily generating the same enthusiasm or recognition among his supporters, “said Liam Donovan, former assistant to the National Republican Senate Committee.” Unless and until it becomes an election between the candidates, or a control over complete Democratic control, the majority of the Senate will only go as far as the performance of the president can take it. ”
But beyond electoral calculations, there are mathematical calculations. Even if Trump and congressional Republicans made proposals across party lines, it is unclear if anyone would be receptive. The Daily Beast spent the weekend soliciting comment from voters who backed Hillary Clinton in 2016, but were considering voting for Trump in 2020. Only a handful of people said they were in that field.
“As brazen as Trump is as a human being and as much as I hate to see him undermine our international position in the world, I think he’s more likely to keep things manageable, within reason,” said Norm Bradshaw of Seattle. “Because we don’t need a cultural revolution. We need a company and a government that work together to guarantee jobs, livelihoods, [and] security in society that automates quickly. “
Aaron McDowell, who resides in Sunnybrook, Pennsylvania, said: “I voted for Hillary Clinton because I thought it was time for a president. But now that’s not on the table.
He explained, “So since I agree with Trump on the economy and cut my taxes, I go with him because I hope he will do it again.”
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