If you had watched the news today, you would have forgotten that you think an enormous asteroid is about to collide with Earth the day before the 2020 US presidential election.
At least that’s the takeaway from quite a few news stores. And, understandably, some people are freaking out. In a year with a literal pandemic, an asteroid collision actually just puts a cherry on top of a Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad cake.
But we have good news for you! Despite the headlines, there is no need to worry about this particular asteroid – known as 2018VP1.
2018VP1 is no surprise to scientists. As the name already suggests, it was discovered back in 2018, while it was about 450,000 kilometers from Earth.
It has an orbital period of two years, and it is currently returning to us.
Fortunately, this is not one of the many asteroids we do not know about until they have already exploded, or flown by.
This time, however, the Apollo-class asteroid is estimated to come within 4,994.76 kilometers from Earth. That’s really close in space terms.
And because it is so close, there is a slight chance (1 in 240 or 0.41 percent) that it will hit Earth on November 2, 2020 – the day before the US presidential election.
Asteroid 2018VP1 is very small, about 6.5 feet, and poses no threat to Earth! It currently has a 0.41% chance of entering the planet’s atmosphere, but if it did, it would disintegrate due to its very small size.
– NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) August 23, 2020
Overlooking the stakes and the year we all have, a chance at 1 in 240 still feels a bit high for comfort. We get it.
Well, we have even better news. Even if 2018VP1 an asteroid is lucky enough to have a date with our light blue dot, the overwhelming chances are that it still will not hurt you.
But why? Well, it’s just the size of a small car – about 2 meters (7 feet) in diameter. That kind of asteroid just has the circumference for major damage.
NASA’s list of potentially dangerous objects has a cutoff of at least 140 meters (460 feet). The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs was at least 10 kilometers (6 miles) in diameter on impact, after losing some of its volume in its arrival.
Asteroids the size of 2018VP1 will easily burn up in the atmosphere long before they make it to the ground.
So, while there is every chance that one day a killer asteroid may finally crash into Earth, 2018VP1 is not that asteroid.
But that does not mean we can not be prepared for asteroids that pose a risk. NASA and other space agencies around the world are working to make us better at detecting these ‘near earth objects’, and potentially deflating them one day.
That, at least for the moment, the US election will go ahead in November – or, at least, this asteroid will not put a gun in the democratic process.
We are not sure how these stories began, but not long after, NASA Asteroid Watch tweeted a comment that explained the size, and (very low) the chance of impact.
2020 has been a full year, but at least we do not have to add a ‘deadly asteroid’ to the list of horrors. At least, not yet.
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