NEW YORK (AP) – There is little evidence that the protests that erupted after the death of George Floyd caused a significant increase in U.S. coronavirus infections, according to public health experts.
According to experts, if the protests had sparked an explosion in the cases, the jumps would have begun to manifest in two weeks, and perhaps as soon as five days. But that didn’t happen in many cities with the largest protests, including New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Washington, DC
In what is considered the first systematic look at the question, a team of economists determined that only one of the 13 cities involved in the first wave of protests after Memorial Day had a pattern-matching increase.
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It was in Phoenix, where experts say cases and hospitalizations increased after Governor Doug Ducey’s decision to end the order to stay home in Arizona on May 15 and ease restrictions on companies. Arizona residents who were locked up for six weeks flooded the Phoenix area bar districts, ignoring social distancing guidelines.
Black Lives Matter supporters demonstrate during a march on June 20, 2020 in Salt Lake City. (Rick Bowmer / AP)
In many cities, the protests actually seemed to lead to a net increase in social distancing as more people who did not protest decided to stay off the streets, said study lead author Dhaval Dave of Bentley University.
“Large-scale protests can affect both the behavior of protesters and the behavior of non-protesters,” said Dave. The document was published last week by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but has not been published by a peer-reviewed journal.
Using data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, The Associated Press reviewed trends in daily reported cases in 22 US cities.It found post-protest increases in several cities, including Houston and Madison, Wisconsin, where experts they say other factors were the main drivers.
Health officials are still investigating sudden increases in cases in different states, and more data may emerge. But experts believe that if the protests had a big impact on the cases, stronger signs would now appear.
Floyd was killed on May 25 by a Minneapolis police officer who used his knee to hold Floyd’s neck to the ground. The murder of a black man by a white officer sparked protests across the United States.
Coincidentally, some states had begun to lift social distancing restrictions in late May.
Dave and his colleagues recounted protests for three weeks in 281 cities with populations of at least 100,000.
Most had protests that lasted more than three days, and many protests that had at least 1,000 participants.
It is unclear how many protesters participated, let alone how many wore masks or were later tested. That may have varied from place to place.
People gather to protest the death of George Floyd in Houston on June 2, 2020. (David J. Phillip / AP)
Houston is among several Texas cities that have recently seen a sharp increase in cases and hospitalizations. Dr. Umair Shah, executive director of the county health department, believes that some cases are likely to be attributed to the protests.
“We just don’t know how much,” he said.
But it is difficult to measure the precise impact of the protests for various reasons, Shah and others said. Earlier business reopens and a greater willingness to ignore patterns of social distancing started the trend in the Houston area, Shah said.
Another factor: Many people don’t get tested unless they feel symptoms. Many protesters were young adults, who are generally less likely to get serious illnesses and therefore may not have been tested, experts said.
And some test takers may still not answer all the questions outbreak researchers ask them.
“I know of three people who said, ‘Yes, I was at a protest.’ That doesn’t mean there weren’t 25 or more others who attended a protest and they just didn’t share that with us, ”said Dr. Mysheika Roberts, public health commissioner for the city of Columbus, Ohio.
That city has seen a spike in cases in the past month, but health officials say they can’t attribute it to any particular reason other than people who socialize and return to normal activities without wearing masks or taking other precautions. So far, the protests do not appear to be a real factor.
“Most of the protests, at least in my jurisdiction, were outside,” and the virus does not spread as well outside, Roberts said. “And I would say that 50% of those who were at the protests were wearing a face mask.”
