SKOPJE, North Macedonia – Zoran Zaev, the favorite in Wednesday’s general election in North Macedonia, did more during his 30 months as prime minister than most Macedonian politicians in the almost 30 years since the country became independent from Yugoslavia.
When Zaev resigned from the post of prime minister in January, to allow a provisional government to oversee the election campaign, he had pushed North Macedonia to the brink of NATO membership. It had cleared the way for the country to run to join the European Union. And he had settled a three-decade dispute with the country’s largest neighbor, Greece.
And yet, Zaev could still lose Wednesday’s election, thanks in part to anger over the move he took to accomplish all of this: adding the qualifier “North” to the old name for the country of Macedonia. That move persuaded Greece to stop blocking the country’s requests to join NATO and the European Union, now confident that Skopje had no territorial ambitions over an area in northern Greece also known as Macedonia.
But it angered Macedonians who felt Zaev had eroded his identity and resented how he ratified the amendment in Parliament despite the majority of voters boycotting a referendum on the issue.
“I come from Macedonia, not northern Macedonia,” said Robert Mileski, a blogger and software developer who voted for Mr. Zaev in the last election, but now describes that decision as “the biggest mistake in my life.”
“He has no right to put his own will before the will of the people,” added Mileski.
A loss on Wednesday for Mr. Zaev’s center-left party would create uncertainty not only for North Macedonia, a landlocked and mountainous country of 2 million, but for the broader region of south-eastern Europe, where several of the problems underpin the Balkan Wars of the 1990s remains unsolved two decades later.
Zaev’s biggest rival, Hristijan Mickoski, a right-wing nationalist, opposed the name change. Mickoski also wants to revisit parts of not only the deal with Greece, but also a similar pact with Bulgaria and a recent law that increased the rights of ethnic Albanians, who make up about a quarter of the population in northern Macedonia.
“If we are not stable,” Zaev said in an interview last week, “if we are fighting with our neighbors, if we are fighting with the Albanians in northern Macedonia, it puts the country in danger.”
In another interview, Mr. Mickoski said that he supported NATO’s membership and request to join the European Union. But he also promised to work within constitutional limits to alter the pact with Greece.
“You can’t ignore reality,” said Mickoski, speaking of himself in the third person. “But at the same time, it will use all the democratic tools to change that reality.”
If Mr. Mickoski gains power, few expect him to formally reverse the deal with Greece.
But some analysts fear he creates enough turmoil with Greece and Bulgaria for one or both to renew their opposition to the EU’s application in North Macedonia, diverting the energy and attention of international mediators from other regional tensions.
In particular, that would distract efforts to negotiate a final agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, the former Serbian province that split in 1999 after a guerrilla campaign by ethnic Albanian separatists and a NATO bombing campaign aimed at protecting to its largely Albanian ethnic cleansing population
“I think it will be a problem for the region,” said Petar Arsovski, a Skopje-based political analyst. “We have not yet crossed the hill. We can still go back. “
Like the rest of the Balkans, North Macedonia is a field of competition for the West, Russia and China. Any deviation from a pro-European path could give Moscow a chance to reimpose itself, particularly with divided European powers over how much they want to commit to North Macedonia.
Even after Zaev wagered his political career on the name change, France briefly blocked the country from joining the European Union, only relented after Zaev desperately resigned and called for new elections.
A loss for Zaev could also exacerbate internal tensions between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians, some of whom led a failed separatist uprising in 2001.
In these elections, Mr. Zaev’s party is facing off against an ethnic Albanian party, a rare association in a country where parties tend to divide along ethnic lines.
Mr. Zaev has also attempted to bridge the gap between the two communities by introducing a law that gave ethnic Albanians the right to speak their language within state institutions and installed Albanian signage in settlements with significant Albanian populations.
Mr Mickoski wants to revise that law, a move that many Albanians say would be a provocation, particularly if he joined any challenge to European integration.
“Albanians are more Western oriented, so changing that path will create an internal divide,” said Albert Musliu, an Albanian political analyst and ethnic rights activist. “Every step backward from EU integration creates a tension between the two communities.”
Rights activists and business leaders are also concerned about what a loss for Zaev would mean for the rule of law.
Zaev took office in 2017 after Mr. Mickoski’s party, which had been in power for 11 years, was toppled by a series of scandals related to bribery and government surveillance.
The State Department concluded in 2015 that Mickoski’s predecessor Nikola Gruevski had overseen high levels of corruption, did not fully respect the rule of law, tried to restrict media freedom, and meddled in court decisions.
Under Zaev’s command, North Macedonia began tentative legal reforms and became a little more democratic, according to an evaluation by Freedom House, an independent Washington-based rights watchdog.
Along with a stronger international profile, this has made North Macedonia a more attractive place to do business. Since the pact with Greece was signed in 2018, the number of companies working in the country’s free economic zones has more than doubled to 40.
Some fear that a change of government will slow down this investment.
“Everyone is looking for the rule of law and the stabilization of Macedonia,” said Goran Maurovski, head of Beton, a major construction company.
But Mr. Zaev’s critics say he himself is willing to bend the rule of law when it fits his agenda.
To secure the support of eight opposition lawmakers needed to ratify the name deal through Parliament, Mr. Zaev controversially agreed to support an amnesty for lawmakers or their families who were being investigated for cases including a 2017 attack on the Parliament building.
“Is that democratic?” said Mr. Mileski, the blogger who once supported Mr. Zaev. “Either you are a Democrat or you are not.”
This type of frustration, combined with outrage over the name deal, will be Zaev’s biggest obstacle to reelection on Wednesday.
At a meeting for Mr. Mickoski, Vijana Milosevska, a 31-year-old saleswoman, said she hoped Mr. Zaev would lose so that the country’s name could be changed back to Macedonia.
“It is not important for us to join the EU, we can survive on our own in our own land,” said Milosevska.
“If the Russians give us a better offer,” he added, “why not?”
Alisa Dogramadzieva contributed reports from Skopje.
