Brightly colored beach towels line the shores of Lake Storsjon, two hours north of Stockholm.
Holidays are popular here this summer, thanks to a number of travel restrictions imposed on Sweden by other countries, due to its rate of coronavirus infection.
More than 5,500 people have died with Covid-19 in this country of just 10 million. It is one of the highest mortality rates in relation to population size in Europe and by far the worst among the Nordic nations. Unlike Sweden, the rest chose to lock themselves up early in the pandemic.
“Maybe we should have taken a little more care of ourselves,” says Dan Eklund, 31, visiting the lake in his friend’s boat.
The latest figures suggest that Sweden is improving to contain the virus. The number of reported daily deaths has been in the single digits for much of July, in contrast to the peak of the pandemic in April, when more than 100 deaths were recorded on various dates.
There has also been a marked drop in severe cases, with new intensive care admissions falling to less than a handful each day. Although it is still not as low as elsewhere in Scandinavia, it is a clear improvement.
“It feels good. I mean, finally, we are where we expected to be long before,” says Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist who is leading the strategy. He has admitted that many have died, especially in Swedish nursing homes. But he believes there is still “no strong evidence that a blockade would have made a big difference.”
What was Sweden’s strategy?
Sweden has relied heavily on voluntary patterns of social distancing since the start of the pandemic, which include working from home whenever possible and avoiding public transportation.
There has also been a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, restrictions on visits to nursing homes, and a change to table-only service in bars and restaurants. The government has repeatedly described the pandemic as “a marathon, not a sprint,” arguing that its measures are designed to last over the long term.
Dan Eklund (left) says “maybe we should have taken a little more care”
The unusual strategy has drawn worldwide criticism, even some of Dr. Tegnell’s early supporters said they now regret the approach. Annika Linde, who did her work between 2005 and 2013, recently told Sweden’s largest newspaper Dagens Nyheter that she believed that tighter restrictions at the start of the pandemic could have saved lives.
But according to clinical epidemiologist Helena Nordenstedt, there is no consensus in the Swedish scientific community that the strategy as a whole has failed.
Karolinska Institute
The strategy was to flatten the curve, not overwhelm healthcare capacity. That seems to have worked. If you take care of the houses out of the equation, things look a lot brighter
Are Swedes better for social distancing?
Anders Tegnell says his modeling indicates that, on average, Swedes have about 30% of the social interactions they had before the pandemic.
And a survey released this week by the Swedish Civil Contingency Agency suggests that 87% of the population continues to follow the recommendations for social distancing in the same measure as a week or two ago, compared to 82% a month ago.
Restaurant manager Shiar Ali says not everyone adheres to social distancing guidelines
Nordenstedt believes that since the Swedes have had more time to adjust how they operate in public than the countries that were blocked, this could help Sweden mitigate a potential second wave.
“People are not as exhausted as they could be in other countries where the restrictions have been much broader and stricter.”
But while Swedes know the guidelines, there have been reports of large gatherings and mixing at some tourist spots since restrictions on domestic travel were relaxed last month.
“We try to tell them and show them to keep their distance,” says Shiar Ali, manager of one of the beachfront restaurants on Lake Storsjorn. “Especially young and young men, they don’t care.”
Has Sweden achieved herd immunity?
Swedish authorities never said their goal was to achieve herd immunity, but they did argue that by keeping more of society open, Swedes would be more likely to develop resistance to Covid-19.
Five months after the pandemic in Europe, only 6% of the population here has antibodies, according to research by the Swedish Public Health Agency.
However, Anders Tegnell believes the true number is “definitely much higher” since immunity “has proven surprisingly difficult to measure.”
Eva Britt Landin (right) supports Sweden’s approach “because nobody knows exactly how we should do it”
The state epidemiologist points to recent research by the Karolinska Institute that found that even people who tested negative for antibodies to the coronavirus had specific T cells that can provide immunity by identifying and destroying infected cells.
But other Swedish scientists are more cautious in predicting resistance to the virus. “I think he is too confident,” says Helena Nordenstedt. “We can all expect it to have an effect on infection case numbers in Sweden during the fall, but we don’t know yet.”
How is the Swedish economy doing?
The strategy was also not designed to protect the economy, but the government argued that keeping society more open could limit job loss and mitigate the impact on business.
Scandinavian bank SEB’s research in April suggested that Swedes were spending at a higher rate than consumers in neighboring Nordic nations.
Despite this, various forecasts predict that the Swedish economy will continue to decline by approximately 5% this year. That’s less than other countries affected by Covid-19, such as Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, but still similar to the rest of Scandinavia. Sweden’s 9% unemployment rate remains the highest in the Nordic countries, up from 7.1% in March.
Although more companies remained open than in other countries, forecasts predict that the Swedish economy will continue to decline by approximately 5% this year.
“Sweden, like the other Nordic countries, is a small and open economy, very dependent on trade. Therefore, the Swedish economy tends to perform poorly when the rest of the world is poor,” explains Professor Karolina Ekholm, former Deputy Governor of The Swedish Central Bank.
Restaurants, shops and gyms have been allowed to stay open, but they still have trouble attracting customers, he says.
But he does believe the right call was made to keep schools open to those under the age of 16.
Riksbank
There have been fewer disruptions to the growing generation, in terms of learning. That can produce benefits later when [they start] enter the workforce
A blow to Sweden’s image
In the short term, Sweden’s Covid strategy is affecting its generally close relationship with its neighbors.
Norway, Denmark and Finland opened their borders to each other in June, but excluded Sweden due to its high infection rate, although since then Swedes from less affected regions have been more free to visit Denmark.
A YouGov poll last month found that 71% of Norwegians and 61% of Danes were concerned about keeping Swedish tourists away, a number higher than that of visitors from countries such as Spain, Italy and the UK. .
“I don’t think this affects long-term relationships,” says Helen Lindberg, a tenured professor in government at Uppsala University. “But it has highlighted or brought old complaints between our countries.”
She believes that a bigger problem could be the impact on Sweden’s broader international reputation for high-quality state health and care for the elderly. “The Swedish image of being this humanitarian superpower in the world has been a severe blow. Our halo has been shot down and we have a lot to show now.”
How national support weakened
At the start of the pandemic, there was consensus that Swedish state scientists should be trusted to guide political decisions.
But the debates escalated as the death toll increased, especially in nursing homes, and Prime Minister Stefan Lofven recently announced a coronavirus commission to investigate the authorities’ response at the national, regional and local levels.
- What is wrong in Swedish nursing homes?
Helen Lindberg believes the strategy has called into question a historical reliance on public agencies to inform policy and highlighted the lack of crisis preparedness. “It is a perfect storm for our weak minority government,” she says.
When it comes to the pandemic, polls suggest that Swedes have more confidence in the Public Health Agency than in their government.
Only 45% of Swedes now trust the government’s ability to handle the pandemic, according to a Novus poll last month, up from 63% in April.
Confidence in the Public Health Agency has also declined, but remains at a much higher 65%, compared to 73% at the peak of the pandemic.
“We think they have the right strategy, because nobody knows exactly how we should do it,” says vacationer Eva Britt Landin, 66, who is having social lunch with her 102-year-old father in Lake Storsjorn,
But Catherina Eriksson, 42, who is visiting from Stockholm, says the jury is still out. “We don’t know what things will be like in the fall or next year. We will have to wait and see.”
