Five months in, and, as a nation, we are still flowing: 4 percent of the world population with 22 percent of the Covid deaths in the world. By comparison, Japan, with 40 percent of our population, has experienced less than 1 percent of our C-19 deaths. They are happy in that they do not have our ‘Murica-Land-of-the-Free mentality’. SARS and MERS have survived, the Japanese are accustomed to wearing masks, distance, and everything else. So where are we now?
Fifth Coronavirus?
SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19, is a coronavirus, one of seven known to infect humans. Two of these – the original SARS virus (2002-2004) and MERS (2012+) – are much less infected than the current coronavirus. The other four (229E, OC43, NL63 and HKU1) cause most cases of the common cold. The most likely endgame, according to many researchers, is that SARS-CoV-2 will become the ‘fifth coronavirus’, circulating regularly among us, but in a milder and less fatal form.
This makes sense: a dead host is not a use for a virus. To survive, it needs live hosts, walking around, infecting other people. So long-lasting, we can expect this virus to mutate into, so to speak, a friendlier, softer form.
Fax?
A Covid vaccine will probably not be the magic bullet we all hope for: it’s unlikely that the first approved vaccine will definitely be ‘best’, plus, once a vaccine is certified for universal use, we’ll probably have to it annually, like a flu shot.
Because C-19 will not go away, ever. At present, while we have vaccinations for about a dozen human viruses, only one disease-causing disease – smallpox – has been completely eliminated. And that took almost 20 years of intensive and inadequate international cooperation and vaccination: a far cry from the competitive, nationalist atmosphere of today.
Masks?
Although usually promoted as protection for others, a cloth mask also helps you, the wearer, by limiting the “viral load” that you can inhale when you are around someone who is infected. Researchers are pretty sure that if you are infected, the smaller the load, the less serious your symptoms. It’s unclear exactly how many C-19 viral particles it takes to infect one (SARS took a few hundred, while the critical dose for MERS was several thousand), but if 1,000 Covid viruses fight your country in hospital for your life, would 500 only be able to make you feel angry for a few days. (And that 500 could be different from wearing a mask.)
This was the case with chickenpox, before a vaccine was released in 1995. ‘It is the second child in the home to become much safer because they are exposed to much more [chickenpox] virus, ”according to vaccine expert Dr. Paul Offit. Same with the hepatitis B virus: the greater your viral load, the safer you get.
Immune systems?
Our immune system has (roughly) two main lines of defense against viruses: antibodies, or proteins that recognize distinct parts of the virus (epitopes) and then essentially smother them; en
killer T-cell, or cells that recognize epitopes on the surface of a virus-infected cell and instruct the cell to self-destroy. Typically, antibodies and T cells go hand in hand in epidemics, so if someone shows antibodies (which are quickly and easily detected from a blood sample) they also have T cells (which can only be detected with specialized labs). tests).
SARS-Co-2 seems to be an exception to the rule “antibodies and killer T cells work in tandem”. One study found, for example, that two-thirds of asymptomatic close contacts of an infected person had many T cells, but no detective antibodies. One more challenge as scientists try to understand this oddball virus!
Left: Single Covid virus (1 / 100,000th the size of a grain of salt) with red “spikes.” (CDC) Right: Spike detail. The spikes on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus can act as epitopes to be detected by a potential vaccine. Each spike is an elegant composition of three identical protein chains (protomers), two of which (white and gray) are illustrated without detail, while the third is colored according to the different domains in the protein. (Jason McLellan, University of Texas at Austin, used with permission)
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SARS-CoV-2 is really new, and researchers have only six months of data to go through. During that time, however, they found out a lot about them, including: the RNA genome; its probable source; how it is transmitted; and what types of faxes can be used against it. (Currently, more than 160 fax candidates are in development.) Each week produces new data and new surprises. In a year we will know much more. Until then, you know the protocol: masks, hand washing, six-foot … and avoiding meetings (“super-spreaders” have been transformed into “super-events”).
Unless your idea of a good time is that a fan shakes your throat.
