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The numbers reveal a sharp drop in the Algerian’s final product, which does not bode well for the Reds’ visit … and indeed for 20/21
Ask anyone close to Manchester City about recent performances and results, and they’ll likely say the same thing: Pep Guardiola’s team is a long way from its swashbuckling best in 2017/18 and a year later, when it retained its crown of the Premier League.
Undoubtedly, the malaise that began at the beginning of last season worsened throughout 2019/20 and ended in disappointment, with Pep’s team failing to achieve three league titles at a trot or challenge on the continent.
Of course, both feats were always going to be demanding, but what disappointed was not that the Manchester squad couldn’t retain their crown, but how it happened. They finished a staggering 18 points behind Jurgen Klopp’s side after being left out of the title race in December, while exasperatingly exiting the Champions League against Olympique Lyonnais.
Key to his best performances last season were Kevin De Bruyne, who ultimately matched Thierry Henry’s Prem assist amount, and Riyad Mahrez, who was not as praised as the Belgian attacking midfielder.
This was somewhat surprising given how decisive the African champion was in many games leading up to the lockdown, including a dominant victory in the UCL first leg over Real Madrid despite the absence of goal contributions, before falling. a bit since June.
Mahrez’s downfall can be attributed to his exclusion from Guardiola’s line-ups following disappointing performances against Newcastle United and Arsenal in the FA Cup quarter-finals and semi-finals, respectively. The Algerian stayed out vs The whites but he doesn’t seem to recover since then.
It’s true that the attacker’s preparations were held back by a positive coronavirus test just before the season started, meaning the former Leicester City player has been trying to catch up since September. Injuries sustained by the team’s key attackers have not helped the team’s cause as games have developed rapidly and Mahrez started five of City’s six league games.
The wideman’s numbers reveal that he scored once and netted goals, both in the 5-2 win over old Leicester at the Etihad in late September. He’s also created a great opportunity so far this season, also in that loss to the Foxes.
However, a further dip in the Algerian star’s numbers underscores the alarming drop, albeit taking into account the small size of the games sample.
Mahrez has so far failed to create a clear open play opportunity – Nathan Ake’s consolation assist against Leicester came from a corner, and is significantly below Expected Assists, Shot Creation Actions and Goal Creation Actions per 90.
Last season, Africans’ xA per 90 was 0.41, now down to 0.14 after five league starts. Only De Bruyne topped the winger last year, but this season he ranks sixth alongside Ilkay Gundogan and just ahead of Aymeric Laporte, whose xA times 90 is 0.11.
For shot creation and goal creation, the former Leicester player’s decline has been equally remarkable. He’s posting less shot creation by 90 this year compared to 19/20 (3.75 and 6.48 respectively), while his goal creation per drop of 90 in both seasons has been surprising – 0.21 so far and 1.44 last season.
In fact, Mahrez ranked first in goal-creating actions by 90 last season, while he is in seventh after a five-time Premier League appearances.
Interestingly, however, the 29-year-old’s struggles are reflected in creating overall team opportunities as Man City have a hard time finding clear opportunities this season.
While this seems strange for a Guardiola team, their inability to unlock stubborn rearguard has been consistent in their first six league games.
After 540 minutes of action, City have created 11 great opportunities, behind Sunday’s opponents Liverpool (25), Aston Villa (18), new players from Leeds United (15) and even fewer than Crystal Palace (12 ). .
To be fair, the statistic mentioned above does not take penalties into account, but it is surprising that a Pep team is faced with questions about their experience in creating in the last third. For context, at this stage of the past legislature, Manchester’s blue half had created 32 clear opportunities and went on to create 141 in total, 32 more than champion Liverpool.
If this season’s games are any indication of what’s to come, then City doesn’t just have to deal with a squeaky bottom line, an inability to control games effectively as before, intermittent issues in their pressure and current struggles to seize opportunities.
The final period, despite scoring bucket loads, was also a frustrating waste. After six outings this season, that has been worryingly replaced by an inability to even get into those promising situations in front of goal, leading to just nine goals scored so far, which is highly unusual for them under Guardiola. .
As for Mahrez, one of the main sources of frustration has been his extreme individualism. This came to a head in last week’s 1-0 win over Sheffield United, as KDB seemed frustrated by the Algerian’s decision to hold possession for too long or choose to shoot when there were better passing options.
The winger has always been self-supporting, yet 2.6 shots per game so far is significantly higher than previous seasons at the club and indeed the Prem.
In each of his two years at the Etihad Stadium, Mahrez attempted 1.5 shots per game, while he was 1.5, 1.3 and 1.6 in 17/18, 16/17 and 15/16 respectively in Leicester.
Without a doubt, an increase to 2.6 efforts on goal per game is remarkable, although the size of the five-game sample puts that into context.
Indeed, Pep’s City has been disappointing so far and is already five points behind Liverpool, albeit with a game in hand against Villa to come.
They risk falling within eight points of Klopp’s troops if they fall in defeat on Sunday, instantly making them outsiders to regain the title, especially as their underlying numbers, so far, have been alarming.
While the Spanish coach will want a win against the Merseyside club, he suspects he will hit more on a dominating performance from Mahrez and his teammates as they seek to regain the fear factor that was seemingly lost on both ends of the field in the last 12 to 14 months.
