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The UN Security Council is expected to discuss the ongoing conflict in the northern region of Tigray on Thursday. But a sense of intransigence among African countries to take a firmer stance on Ethiopia has so far thwarted efforts to stop an Eritrea-backed war, warns a leading expert on the region.
“I think it’s outrageous how African members have failed to make progress on this,” said Alex de Waal, a prominent commentator on the Horn of Africa at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, speaking about the discussions within the Council. Security Council scheduled for Thursday.
The conflict in Tigray, with Ethiopian troops backed by Eritrean forces against fighters aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), is set to be on the agenda, following an initiative by the Irish government. But the talks would be behind closed doors and no statement is guaranteed, according to the AFP news agency.
Washington issued a statement on the situation in Tigray on Tuesday following a call between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressing concern about the humanitarian and human rights situation.
“Secretary Blinken pushed for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of external forces from Tigray, including Amhara regional security forces and Eritrean troops,” read a reading of the call released by the US government.
Human rights watchdogs have repeatedly warned of rights abuses committed during an offensive. Prime Minister Abiy has called for a public order operation, directed against the TPLF leaders. Addis Ababa justified the campaign by saying that the TPLF carried out an attack on Ethiopian federal soldiers.
Amnesty International recently published the findings of a report on Eritrean soldiers implicated in mass killings in the northern city of Axum.
Alex de Waal, a longtime scholar who notably served on the African Union-led panel for Sudan, believes that the UN Security Council has two options for taking action on Ethiopia.
Or a more general resolution on the impact of the conflict on international peace and security, especially given Eritrea’s role in the conflict.
Or, the UN Security Council could try to use resolution 2417, which is designed to attack situations where there is a link between armed conflict and food insecurity.
Reluctance
De Waal believes that African countries have a responsibility to protect civilians in Tigray, and the African Union bloc has an obligation to prevent states from perpetuating abuses.
He described what he sees as “regression” and indifference to grave circumstances that could constitute war crimes or crimes against humanity.
“It is outrageous that African states have not denounced this,” he said.
The United States and Europeans have so far refrained from any forceful action, but Washington is beginning to change positions, according to De Waal. It is not just a humanitarian issue, but now an international security issue.
“It has reached such a point, that the outrages and atrocities are at such a level, and the destabilization caused by the rapid collapse of a functioning state in Ethiopia,” said the executive director of the World Peace Foundation, noting a disastrous peace and ramifications security throughout the region.
African reluctance to take a hard line with Ethiopia is evident in the Security Council, with Kenya, an ally of Addis Ababa, representing African countries alongside Niger and Tunisia.
Renewed US interest
The Trump administration did little for Ethiopia, and now the administration of incumbent President Joe Biden is beginning to focus on it, with Blinken offering US assistance to resolve the conflict and emphasizing Prime Minister Abiy’s commitments to allow humanitarian access, which it has been a problem.
Access to the northern region is restricted by the authorities and several journalists working for Western news agencies were recently detained, underscoring the repression of reporting and the scant reporting of the conflict.
For any action or mediation at the UN, the key lies in Eritrea’s role in the conflict, argues de Waal, who has been calling for a stronger reaction to the crisis in Ethiopia, writing in the Irish and American press.
The main thing is to take out Eritrean forces because “they are actually leading the war” in Tigray, according to De Waal, and this can be achieved by putting pressure on the government of Eritrea President Isaias Afwerki, as sanctions against the country were previously in instead and it might restart.
Otherwise, if Eritrean forces do not withdraw from Tigray, their forces can continue to denounce Asmara for human rights violations. As an occupying power, it has humanitarian obligations, De Waal said.
The last UN Security Council meeting on Tigray was on February 2, calling for more humanitarian access, but African Council members had rejected the idea of a joint text.
Several alleged UN humanitarian access agreements have been reached, but access is limited and hundreds of thousands of people affected by the fighting are said to have not been reached.
