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Pep Guardiola has problems to solve. The end of November is upon us and the bottom half of the Premier League table still contains Manchester City. Armed with a new contract, there will be no way to get away from problems, these are yours to solve. The concern is that old flaws have not been addressed and new weaknesses are emerging in a team that was once perfect.
The 2-0 loss to Tottenham was the first time Manchester City failed to score in a Premier League match this season, but it was coming. The old fluency has been lacking. The previous five games had thrown just five goals, one in each, and it was a real fight against the Spurs. This is a team that is used to taking on deep defenses. It is not noticeable.
“It’s just that scare factor too,” said former Manchester City defender Micah Richards. Sky sports. “In the last seasons, City have had Leroy Sane, Sergio Agüero and Raheem Sterling. Now I look at Ferran Torres, Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus, they don’t have the same drive if you ask me. They are elite players but they lack that vanguard. “.
Perhaps the problem is that they found themselves chasing this game from the beginning. Heung-Min Son’s goal in the five minutes set things up for José Mourinho. A repeat of that mistake as City grew increasingly desperate in their quest for a draw allowed substitute Giovani Lo Celso to double the lead in the second half. Game over.
There were many aspects of the first goal that will concern Guardiola. Ederson made the ending easier than necessary. Joao Cancelo could not continue the race. Aymeric Laporte was sucked into the ball by the kind of Harry Kane run that City should have been waiting for and Ruben Dias’ decision to make a similar move knocked him out of the game.
But it was the lack of pressure ahead of the defense that left Tanguy Ndombele with time to choose the pass. Kevin De Bruyne didn’t stop the free kick, and while Jesús and Bernardo Silva tried to cut through the passing angles, Rodri didn’t close fast enough. What protection did the midfielder provide by allowing Ndombele that space?
“Rodri is a very good player, but he doesn’t stop enough attacks for me,” Richards said. “He really doesn’t. Sometimes you’re going to be exposed with the way City plays but Fernandinho used to clean it up. I don’t think Rodri has fully understood that defensive role. The possession he has but the defense.” paper needs a little work. “
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That was evident for the second goal as well, as Rodri searched for man of the match Kane, who found space between the lines at all times. There have been many hallmarks of Guardiola’s success at City, from the wonderful wing play to the magic of those twin eights in midfield and the presence of a world-class forward. But it was his job off the ball that laid the groundwork for all the headline-grabbing moments that followed.
At best, the city sustained attacks and prevented escapades with ruthless efficiency by fair or failed means. Opposition managers would look longingly at the empty space behind Guardiola’s defense in the hope that his faster players might find a way to penetrate. But try as they might, it never seemed to happen. The city never allowed it to happen.
“It’s in the transition when City gives away the ball that they’re not getting the ball back as fast as they used to,” Gary Neville said. Sky sports. “Teams are getting a little more confidence, they can just walk through it. It’s little game passages like this that Fernandinho, David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne were stopping a couple of years ago.”
That’s why City conceded just 50 goals in their two Guardiola titles, averaging 99 points over those two seasons. That’s why they not only won the most games, but they also kept a clean sheet and faced the fewest shots in those two seasons.
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Pep Guardiola says his team is playing well despite struggling to score goals
Many of the underlying numbers remain strong. City still faced the fewest shots last season, even if the number increased. Most of the expected goal models rated them as having the best defense and the best attack, even as Liverpool advanced to the Premier League title.
But dig into the more advanced metrics provided by Opta and the evidence is that City are not playing as intensely as before. The pressure has dropped just a little. It is a bit easier for opponents to fight their way through them. The clues are there and the consequences for Guardiola are real.
Opposition passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) influence passes made by the opposition in their own defensive third and in the middle third of the field, and the defensive actions of the team out of possession in the middle and final third of the opposing field. . .
City’s numbers for this metric were remarkable in the first season in which he won the title with Guardiola. They only allowed 8.3 such passes from opponents, strangling attacks before they had started. Only Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham at that time came close to registering such numbers. It was a key feature of City’s success.
Retaining the Premier League title, Guardiola’s men weren’t as dominant when it came to restraining opponents, allowing 10.0 passes per defensive action, but this was still the fewest of any team in the competition. Last season, that number increased slightly and others began to exceed them. This season 11.8 opposition passes are allowed.
The trend is going in the wrong direction. The defense is exposed.
Another revealing metric tracks the distance opponents can move upfield against a team per sequence. Once again, City restricted this distance better than any other Premier League team in each of their title-winning seasons with Guardiola. Once again, they were overtaken last season and have allowed the gap to widen again this year.
The metrics are linked, of course. Do those defensive actions less often and it will become a bit easier for teams to play, as Leicester did effectively by winning 5-2 at Etihad Stadium and as Tottenham did by scoring twice against City on Sunday.
Perhaps it is also not a coincidence that personnel changes during that period, in particular, Rodri replacing Fernandinho in that starting role, have led to this decline.
That’s why it will take a lot more than just acquiring Dias to address the issues. The Portuguese has leadership qualities and could still form an excellent partnership with Aymeric Laporte. But they will be undermined if there is no pressure on the ball in front of them.
Guardiola’s new contract was a welcome encouragement during the international break, raising hopes that Lionel Messi can still be persuaded to trade Barcelona for Manchester City.
The presence of the great man could mask all kinds of failures on either side, but he is not qualified to solve the central problems of City. This is a team that needs more energy both in defense and attack if they want this system to work. Without that energy, they look ill-equipped to capitalize if Liverpool fail. Pep Guardiola has problems to solve.
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