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A player receives the ball 25 meters from the goal. Your team needs a goal. A packed defense protects the penalty area. You have time to consider your options. The crowd yells: ‘Shoot!’
As a coach sits on the bench, you’re thinking, ‘Don’t shoot!’ And the data backs up the coach.
There have already been around 1,500 goal attempts this Premier League season. Nearly 250 goals have been scored using a variety of tactical techniques and moves.
The conversion rate is 17 percent. About one in six shots results in a goal.
There are numerous methods of scoring a goal; from set-ups to intricate patterns of passing, crossing or counterattacks.
By digging into the data, it is possible to see which route to the goal carries the greatest goal threat. And the shot from outside the penalty area is the least effective.
A long distance shot on goal is the most used method when trying to score.
About 20 percent of all shots made in the Premier League are from distance. However, it has the lowest conversion rate by far. 20 long shots are needed for every goal scored.
By contrast, all other methods have achieved a ratio of one goal for every 5.5 goal attempts.
There is wicked logic that encourages players to shoot when stats are so stacked against a successful outcome. This season Manchester United is more guilty of that logic than any other.
United have shot from far more than any other team (Fulham are second). In fact, a third of all United shots have been taken from outside the area. However, they haven’t scored since one!
This tendency often occurs when there is anxiety. A team so desperate to score that they shoot at first sight, unwilling to patiently pass and move in case a better opening never materializes.
Sometimes the team just runs out of ideas, no alternatives. Or, worryingly, the team simply lacks direction.
Left to their own devices without an established understanding of their best method, the team will invariably make poor decisions.
Without a strategy to “take down” a well-organized defense, a team will be easily stifled. United will remain two-dimensional in attack unless they can find an established route to goal at Old Trafford.
Fortunately for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, his team is well equipped to score fast break goals.
The away games have provided room to exploit. The advanced position of the opposition has given United’s front row an ample opportunity to score. However, playing at home is another matter. They need to find a route to the goal when the opponents park the bus.
In other teams, through all their ups and downs, you can clearly see what their main strategies are. Here are the key ‘routes to goal’:
PASS AND PROBE
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have done 36 percent of all their attacks this way, much like Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
So far, Leicester City has led the way with “total football”, scoring almost twice as much as any other team with this type of total football.
Brendan Rogers is arguably the best “process coach” in the league. It requires a lot of training and players willing to apply the coach’s pattern. For this, midfielders like Juan Mata and Donny van de Beek are needed to combine with Bruno Fernandes in small areas.
IN THE MIXER
Attack the cross with numbers on the box. You need players who are willing to make committed runs before the ball is delivered and who have the desire to receive the cross with the head.
West Ham’s revival has been fueled by this method. David Moyes made his mark at Everton with a strong crossing as his route to goal. Know your plan.
During José Mourinho’s tenure at United, he was ridiculed at times for relying on Marouane Fellaini at the end of matches to force an air strike. In the same way he used Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Mourinho knows the value of a secondary route to the goal, even if it bothers the purists.
REACT FASTER
Anticipate sharply following a pass to the front. React faster than defenders with support numbers.
Chelsea’s good start is fueled by goals scored after collecting fumbles in and around the area. It is a state of mind: “If you play brilliantly, you react brilliantly.”
This makes Chelsea more than just a passing team. Solskjaer must ask himself which players have the instinct to think one second ahead of their opponents. Almost unnoticed by most fans, the smart player who quickly moves off the ball with anticipation.
SET GAMES
Sometimes it takes a corner goal or a free kick to break the deadlock.
The accumulated pressure of the continuous attack phases will produce a constant stream of established plays. The importance of a well-worked routine should not be overlooked. Last season, Virgil van Dijk provided timely goals for Liverpool when other means of scoring failed.
This season, Everton have topped the charts with set pieces goals (not including direct free kicks).
It is one of the reasons for his initial success with the experienced coach Carlo Ancelotti.
It takes time and application in the training field.
All teams are capable of improving their set piece return, but it is certainly not a preferred process for players.
It is based on what is effectively a manager’s sales pitch.
A tough question when star players just don’t see the need. The manager must have true personality and conviction for this to happen.
MIX
The complete game to keep opponents guessing. Having numerous methods of attack, the opposition cannot easily find an effective defensive block.
Liverpool and Tottenham have produced the best statistics in this regard, equally effective in the counterattack as in the attacking phases of play.
Title winners tend to score with various routes to the goal.
■ Paul Tisdale is a Football League coach who developed his own data archiving program: www.paultisdale.co.uk
Teams with good coaches develop a characteristic route to the goal. A clear identity. The best ones can hurt you even if you find a way to stop their usual path. That’s what often separates the good guys from the title contenders. This is how the best clubs take down their opponents.
Tottenham
Tottenham’s data is from a team with a plan and a purpose. They can take down a tight defense, like Gareth Bale’s header winner against Brighton, or they can hit you at half-time.
Spurs’ fourth goal against Southampton, scored by Heung-min Son, is the perfect counter-attack goal.
They also have a strong conversion rate. Like Liverpool, they have a balanced scorecard. Coaching at its finest.
United manchester
They are a real threat at halftime and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer should focus on creating more counter opportunities.
Just look at Bruno Fernandes’s goal to give United the lead against Newcastle.
Unfortunately, most of his attempts are still a slow, modeled attack and then a hopeful shot from a distance. This is not good enough for Manchester United.
Chelsea
Despite being a ‘passing team’, Chelsea have shown that they are more than just beautiful football.
Just look at how they won their first penalty against Crystal Palace. Ben Chilwell hits a diagonal ball and four Chelsea players pounce on a loose ball to win a penalty.
Reaction speed and hunger to get into the danger zone to score goals. Arsenal takes note.
Liverpool
They can hit you with both instantaneous and trained attack goals. His most notable style is typified by Mo Salah’s goal against Everton.
A pass to the three forwards, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino exchange passes and finally Salah shows lightning reactions to crush a loose ball.
With an injury crisis on defense, Liverpool’s best bet may be to ‘beat’
Leeds
Fast and fluid football. As you would expect from a Marcelo Bielsa, Leeds are one of the most attacking teams in a coaching phase.
Much of this is due to the speed at which they move through the middle third. Jack Harrison’s goal against Liverpool on opening day was a sign of things to come. Intensify the game at the rear, shoot through the midfield and try to score.
There is no way back. Roll Forward, Pass Forward, Run Forward – Leeds Style!
Manchester city
City have yet to achieve dominance in their training phases that we expect from them with Pep Guardiola.
They rely too much on long-range shots, but don’t rule them out just yet. Just look at his goal against Liverpool.
Kevin De Bruyne completed a 19-pass play with a pass to the feet of Gabriel Jesus, who produced a superb spin and shot. Expect more goals like this.
Arsenal
Pass and probe the football. Arsenal’s two goals against Sheffield United are great examples of “total football” with Mikel Arteta.
Arsenal’s style is clear, but they are not happening often enough. His goal attempts are woefully short in frequency.
Perfect goals are great, but you need the “easy” ones every now and then. A quantum shift is needed.
Source: m.allfootballapp.com
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