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Gab Marcotti explains why the Premier League is pushing for home games behind closed doors when the season resumes.
The Premier League has admitted for the first time that the season may not be completed due to the coronavirus crisis. If that happens, clubs will have to be creative to find a way to produce a final table to decide European places and relegation.
It would take a vote of 14 of the 20 Premier League clubs to decide how to end the season, null and void now completely off the table. The clubs will meet soon on May 18, although at that stage they are likely to still commit to trying to end the season and any vote on how the season could end would come later.
Here, we take a look at a number of models that have been proposed for the Premier League, or used in other competitions, to try to solve the problems, including two different point formats per game.
On all models: Liverpool They will be crowned Premier League champions for the first time. Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester united Go to the Champions League.
*Yes Manchester city If they win their appeal against a two-year European ban, they would replace United in the Champions League (which falls in the group stage of the Europa League).
JUMP TO: Simple points per game | Game weighted points | Return to Gameweek 27 | Return to 19 games
Model A: the table as is
What is this? It is a simple as it sounds. The last table of the Premier League is used and the positions are final.
What would it mean? Wolverhampton Wanderers and Sheffield United to the Europa League group stage, and Tottenham Hotspur to the second qualifying round. If City wins their appeal, Sheffield United falls in qualifying and the Spurs are lost. The decline has not changed, with AFC Bournemouth, Aston Villa and West Ham United down.
Who else has used this? The Dutch Eredivisie has taken the final table, although a simple points-per-game model would not have altered any position. The Belgian FA is expected to do the same on Friday, because all the teams in its top division have played the same number of games and therefore points per game are not relevant.
Pros: It is easy to understand for all followers and does not require a mathematical equation.
Cons: It does not take into account teams that have played fewer games, such as Arsenal and Aston Villa, and factors such as home form and match difficulty.
Model B: single points per game (PPG)
What is this? Calculate how many points each team has earned, on average, in each game over the course of the season so far.
What would it mean? There would only be two changes in the table. Sheffield United would jump ahead of Wolves, which would guarantee the Blades a place in the group stage of the Europa League, whatever happens with Man City’s European appeal. Arsenal would also trade places with the Spurs, giving the Gunners a possible place in the Europa League standings. The descent will not change.
How is it calculated? You divide points by the number of games played. So Aston Villa has 25 points in 28 games. 25 ÷ 28 = 0.89
Who else has used this? The LFP used points per game to resolve Ligue 1. This method caused Nice to jump over the Stade de Reims and come fifth against each other after its PPG was identical, while Strasbourg finished tenth exchanging places with Angers.
Pros: This is taken into account when teams have played fewer games to give a fairer reflection of comparative performance throughout the season.
Cons: It does not take into account the relative home and away form, as the PPG average is found in all games played. This can negatively affect teams that are strong at home. Nor does it consider the difficulty of the games yet to be played.
Model C: Weighted Points Per Game (WPPG)
What is this? Like points per game, except this format takes into account each team’s home and away form to provide an average for each, which is multiplied throughout a 38 game season.
What would it mean? Compared to the simple PPG, Tottenham would change places with Arsenal for that possible place in the Europa League standings. The only other change of note would come in decline, which would see West Ham fall two places from 16 to 18 and in the last three with Bournemouth saved.
That means bringing PPG vs. WPPG to a vote between Premier League clubs would essentially create an election between Bournemouth and West Ham to remain in the Premier League.
How is it calculated? Divide the points by the number of games played at home and away from home separately. Multiply each number by 19 and add them together to create a total of points. So the Aston Villa start form is 1,307 × 19 = 24.86. Its distance form is 0.533 × 19 = 10.13. That gives them a WPPG count for the season of 34,979.
Who else has used this? Last week it was suggested that League One and League Two in England use this method. This came after it was used to decide the final tables in the Rugby Union English Club Championship (men’s levels 3-12).
Pros: It takes into account local and visiting form, rather than a more generalized average for each club’s form.
Cons: It does not take into account in teams the strength of teams yet to play. Some have played most of the big six at home (giving them a lower average), while others have tough matches. For example, Norwich has the lowest home PPG, but has yet to play Southampton, Everton, Brighton & Hove Albion, West Ham and Burnley, all clubs in the bottom half of the table. Brighton, meanwhile, has one of the best local PPGs in the bottom six, but has yet to host Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle. Brighton’s PPG at home is lower than Aston Villa’s, who has six games left at home.
Model D: Return to Gameweek 27
What is this? This is the last time that all teams had played the same number of games, before Aston Villa and Manchester City were in the Carabao Cup final.
What would it mean? Compared to the simple PPG, the top five would remain the same but only three other positions would not change. Tottenham would climb three places to take a direct route to the group stage of the Europa League, while Wolves would have to await the results of Man City’s appeal for a place in Europe. In the last three, West Ham and Watford, who beat Liverpool 3-0 after February 24, would be relegated with Aston Villa and Bournemouth suspended.
Eight teams would leave places under this method: Sheffield United, Wolves, Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Southampton. Newcastle United, West Ham and Watford; it would only take a seven vote to stop this pullback.
How is it calculated? All games played after February 24 are discounted.
Who else has used this? It was a considered and rejected solution in France.
Pros: It is argued that this is fairer, as some teams have not had the opportunity to improve or reduce their PPG average by playing when others have not.
Cons: It takes away some of the sporting merits of the season and is unlikely to get the support of teams that are negatively affected by moving places and thus lose the cash prize.
Model E: Go back to 19 games
What is this? This is the league table after each team has played each other once.
What would it mean? Compared to the simple PPG, there would be a limited change at the top of the table, with Tottenham and Wolves in the final places of the Europa League, some, but the teams would suffer marked drops that would affect the money of the Premier League prize. , each place with an additional value of £ 2.5 million. Arsenal falls five places, below Brighton, in 13th place, while Watford slides into the relegation zone. Newcastle would climb four places in ninth.
Seven teams would leave places under this method: Manchester City, Wolves, Arsenal, Burnley, Everton, Southampton and Watford; then there is a block of votes to avoid it.
How is it calculated? It only counts the first time that each club has played each other.
Who else has used this? It was another solution that received some traction, but was again rejected in France.
Pros: Since each team has played each other once, it eliminates any discussion about which teams may have an easier or harder game play.
Cons: It can change a board considerably, and a lot of sporting merit is removed, such as Watford’s notable trade with Nigel Pearson. It also doesn’t take into account which teams have had easier home games in the first round of games.
Source: espn.co.uk
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