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Ethiopia’s parliament passed a resolution to cut ties with the Tigray region after it held its own wild parliamentary elections in September.
The upper house of the Federation Chamber “decided that the federal government should sever any kind of relationship with the Tigray regional state assembly and the highest executive body in the region,” according to a statement read on state television on Tuesday.
The decision to hold elections was against the federal government and the national electoral board to postpone the elections for a year due to concerns about the Covid-19 pandemic.
While relations between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have always been tense, this move to go to the election became a flash point, according to Mohamed Girma, visiting professor at the Roehampton University in London.
“Other regional governments understood or accepted the government’s proposal to postpone it, but TPLF again found an opportunity to oppose the prime minister,” says Mohamed.
Abiy’s decision to postpone the elections was seen as controversial, especially in light of the growing inter-ethnic tensions across the country.
Eritrea peace and TPLF
Part of the tension stems from the diplomacy of the Abiy ferry between Addis Ababa and Asmara, the capital of Eritrea. Abiy received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his work to re-establish diplomatic relations with Eritrea, which had not had normal relations since the war between the two broke out in 1998.
The TPLF has a long and fractured history with Eritrea, stemming from a number of problems, including the disputed town of Badme along the border, which was key in the 1998 Eritrean-Ethiopian war.
“Critics in Tigray said that Abiy did not pay the same attention to Tigrayan’s problems, so every time he went to Asmara he irritated the TPLF,” says Mohamed.
Regional impact
Mohamed says this crisis adds to the general feeling of uncertainty in the region and in the nation as a whole.
“Living between the tensions of the two levels of government is not something that is welcome, psychologically speaking. People will suffer from this uncertainty, ”he says.
Economically, circumventing the TPLF will be a difficult task, although the federal government said it would work with local governments in the region.
“That may seem plausible on paper, but it is not very clear how the government could achieve it and it could also have some economic implications for the people of Tigray,” says Mohamed.
The government has said that it will not sever its relationship with the people of Tigray.
Before the wild elections, Abiy had started a charm offensive, says Mohamed, speaking to the Tigrayans in Tigrinya in a series of speeches.
TPLF claimed a majority in the last election.
“That presents the government with a unique challenge: If the people of Tigrayan have the support of the TPLF, the action of bypassing the TPLF and working with the lower government is not practical,” he says.
The problem also has implications at the national level, especially if there is no political will to bring both sides to the table, adds Mohamed.
“That is what people long for … but that is not happening and both sides are pushing in opposite directions,” he says.
“It is also creating anxiety about the entire social contract and the possible disintegration of that federal system as well,” he adds.
