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Atalanta vs. Liverpool Odds
| Atalanta Odds | +210 [BET NOW] |
| Liverpool odds | +114 [BET NOW] |
| To draw | +290 [BET NOW] |
| Below | 3.5 (-112 / -110) |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS All Access | fuboTV |
Rates updated as of Monday at 11:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $ 1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more deals and reviews for the the best online sports betting houses.
When the Champions League groups were raffled and the schedule published, the first set of matches I was looking forward to were back-to-back encounters between Italian favorites Atalanta and reigning English champions Liverpool.
Atalanta raced to the Champions League quarter-finals last season and was minutes away from the semi-final before PSG scored a pair of heartbreaking goals at the end. Liverpool were European champions in 2019 and reigned dominant in the Premier League last season.
If I was trying to get someone interested in watching soccer, this is a game I would show them. Liverpool travel to Bergamo with first place in Group D at stake.
Atalanta
Not many casual fans know much about them, but they are one of the most exciting watches in Europe. Atalanta plays open, attacks football and concedes many goals. The start of the 2020 season has been a mixed bag for the Bergamo boys, but they remain fourth in Serie A despite conceding 13 goals in six games.
In the last two seasons in Serie A, Atalanta has had the best underlying numbers in the league, better than Juventus. For expected goal difference (xGD), no one is better than coach Gian Piero Gasperini’s team.
Expected targets (also known as xG) It is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether the results are based on sustainable factors, such as a constant creation of scoring chances, or if it is due to aspects such as luck or an outstanding goalkeeper.
Atalanta loves to push high, playing a back three with an overlapping central defense tactic going forward. At the top, they have four incredible attackers up front who score goals for fun. With the return of forward Josip Ilicic, Atalanta’s attack becomes even more lethal.
Through six league games, Atalanta is third in xGD without penalty in Serie A and second in xG. They have shown no signs of slowing down in Europe and have dominated both Champions League matches so far, despite settling for a 2-2 draw with Ajax last week.
Betting against Atalanta has been a mistake for a while now, and this is a home run for them in their biggest game of the season so far.
Liverpool
An important factor to consider in this game for Liverpool is that they have had two wins in their first two group stage games and have a hugely important Premier League game against Manchester City this weekend. This is a brutal place for the Reds, whose performances have not been great in the Champions League.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some Liverpool rotation in midfield for the Reds and attack to preserve them through the weekend.
Under coach Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool’s results away from home in the Champions League have been disappointing, and they were extremely fortunate to win their first group match at Ajax despite a lackluster performance. They won 1-0 thanks to an own goal and were outscored for most of the match.
In the Premier League, Liverpool’s results have been nothing to admire, but performances have remained excellent since Virgil van Djik suffered a serious knee injury. The Reds are first in the English top flight in xGD and top the league table, one point ahead of Leicester City.
They are sweeping the rest of the Premier League in passes to the penalty area, and it could be argued that they have the two best open forwards in the league in Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane.
Atalanta-Liverpool selection
Both sides have a tactical advantage that can be exploited by the other’s attack. Atalanta’s high-pressure style is prone to long balls being knocked down in front, and Roberto Firmino, Mane and Salah are excellent at playing this way when necessary. This ability will create opportunities for Liverpool to attack Atalanta and play on their press.
But Atalanta also poses unique challenges for Liverpool, and I think Reds right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold and the center-backs Klopp chooses to play will be put to the test. Atalanta’s ability to overload the side and potentially pick Alexander-Arnold, who is questionable on defense, could lead Atalanta to create advantageous situations down the road. Duvan Zapata pushes wide to join Robin Gosens on the wing, while Alejandro Gómez replaces Zapata. It will be a fascinating tactical battle, no matter how much you expect an open game.
I consider Liverpool to be a better team and I price them +130 here, but the opportunity to play Atalanta as a big local underdog is too good to pass up. Liverpool without Van Dijk and Fabinho, which will test their defensive depth.
Give me Atalanta for the win.
The chose: Atalanta ML (+210)
