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Guinea’s President Alpha Conde was willing to risk it all and seek a controversial third term.
Over the past year, the 82-year-old challenged mass protests to push for a new constitution in a March referendum that critics denounced as a plot to circumvent a two-term presidential term limit.
As tensions mounted in the run-up to the October 18 elections, he closed Guinea’s borders and severely restricted the internet and phone lines.
Days after the vote, Guinea’s electoral commission declared Conde the winner with 59 percent of the votes against the main opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, with just over 33 percent.
The result requires confirmation from the Constitutional Court, but its announcement caused mortal discomfort.
More than 20 people were killed when Diallo supporters clashed with security forces, according to the government, while the opposition brings the death toll to 30. Amnesty International, a global human rights watchdog, said that Videos and eyewitness testimonies showed security forces using ammunition against opposition supporters.
Diallo, a former prime minister who lost to Conde in two previous elections, was accused of escalating tensions by claiming an early victory based on polling station results.
A spokesman for Diallo’s party said he has evidence of fraud and will dispute the result in court. The absence of top international election observers means their efforts are likely to be futile.
When Conde came to power in 2010, in the country’s first democratic elections since independence from France in 1958, it was seen as a new beginning for the West African country.
The newly elected president compared himself to South Africa’s Nelson Mandela, ushering in the change after decades of authoritarian rule.
But while Mandela resigned after a presidential term, Conde, a former law professor, had other plans.
He first revealed his desire to change the constitution to extend his rule in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi a year before the vote.
Putin, who recently changed the Russian constitution allowing him to run again for the presidency in 2024, and potentially remain in power until 2036, endorsed Count through then-Ambassador Alexander Bregadze, who said, “Constitutions are not dogmas, the Bible, or the Koran. “, and that” as the popular Russian saying goes, you don’t change your horse at the crossing of a river. “
Analysts say Russia has a clear interest in Conde remaining in power through aluminum producer United Co Rusal, which sources about a third of its bauxite, the main ingredient in aluminum, from Guinean mines.
Guinea is also home to Simandou, the world’s largest undeveloped iron ore deposit, operated by a joint venture between Societe Miniere de Boke of Guinea and Winning International Group of Singapore backed by Chinese investors. Two other blocks are owned by Rio Tinto and Chinalco Holding of China.
Conde’s re-election will give investors some “peace of mind,” even if allegations of election fraud and violence against civilians by security forces will seriously concern investors, said Eric Humphery-Smith, Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. , in an emailed comment.
So far, most of the violence has been concentrated in the capital, Conakry, but this could change as the opposition continues to challenge the election results.
For Simandou’s partners, Conde’s victory is the “green light” they needed to move forward, Humphery-Smith said.
The country is likely to remain unstable in the coming weeks. Conde is under pressure from both the opposition contesting the vote and the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution, a coalition of opposition political parties and civil society groups that oppose his third term.
While Diallo agreed to meet with a joint ECOWAS, African Union, and United Nations mediation mission, members of the pre-election movement calling on Conde to abandon his candidacy for the third term refused to meet with the mediators showing that they remain in an attitude of protest.
It is too early to say whether they will be able to rally the tens of thousands who took to the streets before the March referendum.
France, the former colonial power, is probably most concerned about events in neighboring Ivory Coast, where President Alassane Ouattara also has his eyes set on a third term.
US Undersecretary for African Affairs Tibor Nagy, who at first asked Conde to reconsider any plans to seek a third term, decided to ask all actors to respect the result of the vote.
Meanwhile, clashes between opposition supporters and security forces have continued in Conakry, the mining belt and the city of Kindia, where mutinous soldiers rang their guns in the days leading up to the vote.
The internet remains restricted and French telecom operator Orange says its international lines are down, further isolating protesters in Conakry from the outside world.
Despite Conde’s calls for calm and a promise to “remain open to dialogue and available to work with all Guineans” during his third term, Guineans are preparing for a period of political turbulence, instability and further violence.
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