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Jim Rogers shares the frustrations of millions of people under lockdown. The veteran investor, who spent three years with his wife on a world tour of 116 countries in a custom Mercedes-Benz, is particularly upset by the travel restrictions.
“I hate it,” says the 77-year-old enthusiastically from his home in Singapore. “There are many places that I want to go for personal and professional reasons, but the airports are closed.”
After making his fortune in the successful Quantum hedge fund, which he co-founded with George Soros, Rogers first “retired” at the age of 37 in 1980 to “seek adventure.” That led to his first trip around the world on a BMW motorcycle, a trip that inspired his first book. Investment biker, which caused Hour magazine to describe him as the Indiana Jones of finance.
Since then, he has written several books on finance, designed the Rogers (Rici) International Commodity Index in 1998, and worked as a visiting professor of finance at Columbia University.
Better known today as a market commentator, Mr. Rogers regularly appears on business television in Asia and the United States, where his avuncular style and bully style captivate audiences. As an expert public speaker, he prefers to offer non-technical analysis based on his investment experience combined with lessons from history, skepticism about political leaders, and a deep commitment to the role of free markets.
Even before the coronavirus crisis erupted, he believed that US stocks had beaten a correction after an 11-year run and that an unstable price bubble had developed in the bond markets.
“Financial markets were very expensive before the virus outbreak. It was absurd what was happening, “he says.
He questions the rebound in US actions caused by extensive emergency support measures introduced by the Federal Reserve and Washington.
“The rally will continue for a while and who knows when it will end. President Trump will do everything possible to be reelected. But the virus has caused a lot of damage to the world economy. The correction is not over, “he warns.
The depressed stock markets of Russia and China have presented some attractive opportunities and Rogers recently bought a Russian shipping company and a Chinese wine producer.
“I’m not buying much [of stocks]. Some Venezuelan companies may be even cheaper, but I am not allowed to buy them as a US citizen. Nobody wants to buy at the bottom, but people should, of course. “
Commodity markets represent the most attractive asset class in your eyes.
“The cheapest assets in the world right now are commodities. Agricultural products are particularly depressed. Sugar prices are 70 to 80 percent below their all-time high. But we all have to eat and buy clothes. ”
Recent sharp falls in oil prices have inevitably caught his attention.
“The Russians and Saudi Arabia set out to destroy the American fracking industry with their price war. Oil prices fell much more than they expected and the market is bottoming, but this could take several years to resolve. There are efficient and profitable producers of US oil shale, to be sure, but not at $ 20 a barrel. Fracking is not the miracle that people expected it to be and the bubble has burst. ”
United States crude prices are a component of Rici, a basket of 38 products designed to provide a more representative global benchmark than rival indices.
“Rici is the best way for investors to access the commodity markets,” he says with his vendor’s hat on. Rogers still oversees the index as chairman of a governing committee, which includes representation from UBS, Bank of America and Daiwa. Market Access recently listed a publicly traded fund that tracks the Rici index on the London Stock Exchange in an effort to attract UK investors.
He firmly believes that gold and silver inflows will increase as voters lose confidence in government money printing experiments. He added to their personal possessions of both in April.
“I have never sold gold that I have bought. I stopped in 2010 and restarted in 2019. The gold-silver price ratio is close to its all-time high, so I prefer silver to gold because it is cheaper [on a relative basis],” he says.
Some of its strongest criticism is directed at central banks for facilitating a huge increase in global debt that will burden future generations.
Jim Rogers
Born 1942 Baltimore, Maryland
Education
1964 Bachelor of History, Yale University
1966 Bachelor of Philosophy, Politics and Economics, University of Oxford.
Race
1970-73 investment analyst Arnhold and S Bleichroeder
1973-80 Co-establishes the Quantum fund
1980 Retired, 37 years old
1980 to present President of Beeland Interests, owner and sponsor of the Rogers International Commodity Index and the holding company for Mr. Rogers’ business and media interests
“There was too much debt to enter the financial crisis in 2007. Now it is much worse. The debt of the United States is now higher than in the Second World War. Is incredible. Twenty years ago, it was inconceivable that central banks did what they had done. Debt has skyrocketed everywhere. How will our children and grandchildren deal with this?
Concern for the future of young people is a constant theme in his interviews, in part because he did not become a father until he was 60.
“I used to think kids were a horrible waste of time, energy and money, but I was completely wrong,” says the father of two daughters, ages 16 and 12.
The transformation of the United States into the largest debtor nation in history reminds you of the United Kingdom after the First World War.
“The United States is making the same mistakes now that the United Kingdom made in the 1920s by borrowing more and more. No one seems to learn the lessons of history. The Japanese stock market remains 60 percent lower than its peak because the government continues to bail out companies rather than let them fail. But the market is smarter than politicians. The good economy always prevails. “
In recent years, Rogers has become a champion of Korea, which he says will be the “most exciting part of the world for the next 10 to 20 years” once the militarized border between north and south opens.
Speculation abounds about Kim Jong Un’s health after North Korea’s supreme leader did not appear at a national celebration.
Improved economic cooperation will improve access to North Korea’s vast mineral resources and economic labor, as well as attract more tourists to the peninsula.
“It won’t happen as long as US troops are stationed there, but even the Pentagon can’t get in the way of history,” says Rogers, who will plan his third trip to North Korea once the virus travel restrictions are eased.
