[ad_1]
It is an interesting weekend in the main leagues in Europe. Not because there are some attractive matchups, there are a couple, but for the most part, the overall list is disappointing compared to recent weekends, but because of the impact that the Champions League and Europa League could have on the domestic leagues. .
Earlier this season, we saw the best clubs from across the continent struggling as they faced a shorter offseason and the congested schedule of league play and European play, causing them to play multiple games per week while their counterparts played once a week. For example, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Manchester City spun their tires in the Premier League during the first two months of the season. A week after finishing their Champions League group stage matches, they began the 19-game winning streak leading to the weekend.
Will the return of the Champions League and the Europa League have an impact on the teams that continue to play in them? This weekend will give us all an idea and is something worth keeping an eye on as we go.
As for what we have this weekend, while there may not be a lot of headliner head-to-head matches, there are three games in which I have found a lot of value for our purposes. All odds are through William Hill Sportsbook.
1. Leeds United vs. Aston Villa
Well, here is a confession. Could be addicted to gambling at Leeds matches. I’ve found myself doing it repeatedly over the past few weeks, and I’m no longer sure if I’m doing it for the courage or the adrenaline rush. Because trust me, no matter what you bet on a Leeds United game, it will rarely be easy. Betting on a Leeds game is a better cardiovascular exercise than the one Marcelo Bielsa makes his players train.
And you better believe there is going to be an adrenaline rush by betting low on a Leeds match, but this is a great place to do it. Aston Villa will be without Jack Grealish again this weekend, and their attack was very disjointed without him last week against Leicester City. The team’s defense remained robust; even though he allowed two goals earlier due to some confusion, it was quickly fixed. Leeds has its own injuries. Both Rodrigo and Kalvin Phillips will miss the match, as will Mateusz Klich. Pick: Under 2.5 (+130)
2. Chelsea vs. Manchester United
Even though we have a top-four clash between two teams (Manchester City and West Ham), this is arguably the biggest match in England this weekend. It’s a showdown between two traditional Big Six clubs, and every time I’ve seen it this season, I’ve been conditioned to bow down. These matches rarely live up to expectations and instead we see teams becoming more conservative because no one wants to lose ground to another team vying for a place in the Champions League next year.
Chelsea’s defensive performance under Thomas Tuchel only gives me more confidence in the national team. Since Tuchel took over, Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions and only allowed two goals. Your xG against in seven of those eight (we don’t have xG data for FA Cup matches) is 3.0, or 0.43 per match. They have been spectacular on defense. Of course they haven’t played a team like Manchester United, but United’s attack has been spotty at best of late as they pile up opportunities against bad teams but have fought the stronger ones. So I think this match will be a disappointment. I’m officially advising you to stick with the underdog, but I don’t think betting on the tie is a terrible decision either. Pick: Less than 2.5 (-110)
Want even more coverage of the world game? Listen below and subscribe to What a goal! A Daily CBS Soccer Podcast where we take you beyond the field and around the world for commentary, previews, summaries and more.
3. Rome vs. AC Milan
AC Milan returns to Earth. This team had been flying to start the season, but even when looking at the results, the underlying numbers always suggested a regression was likely. It has. We saw a bit of that last weekend when Inter dismantled their rivals 3-0 (I hope they got hold of me!). Well, that was just the latest in a long list of bad results. AC Milan won four of their first five games once the schedule changed from 2020 to 2021, but they have only won two of their last eight since then. Those two victories came against Bologna and Crotone, two teams that rank 14th and 20th in Serie A, respectively.
Meanwhile, Roma are playing well. They have won five of their last seven, with a combined draw and loss. The only loss was for Juventus, which was an unfortunate defeat (Juventus had an xG of just 0.2 in the match). During those seven games, Roma have a 12.9-4.2 xG advantage. Let’s take the team in the right direction. Pick: Rome (+135)
Weekend parlay
A five-team moneyline parlay for this weekend that pays +182.
- Borussia Dortmund (-500)
- Bayern Munich (-600)
- PSG (-480)
- Inter Milan (-530)
- Liverpool (-250)
|
Registry |
Units |
|
|
In the past week |
2-2 |
+0.34 |
|
Usually |
24-35 |
-5.42 |
[ad_2]
