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Health systems will struggle to cope without measures to stop the spread of the virus, WHO experts warn.
Nearly a quarter of a billion people in Africa will contract coronaviruses in the first year of the pandemic, and as many as 190,000 of them are likely to die, unless urgent steps are taken to control the infection, a study of predictive models accepted for their study reveals. publication in BMJ Global Health.
These figures indicate a lower rate of viral exposure and spread than in other parts of the world, the researchers say.
However, they caution that the associated increase in hospital admissions, care needs, and impact on other health conditions in the region would severely deplete limited health resources and worsen the impact of the virus.
The Africa region of the World Health Organization (WHO) includes 47 countries, but excludes Djibouti, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, and Tunisia. As of April 29, 45 countries had reported cases of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 infection.
Many mathematical models used to predict transmission and mortality rates in Africa have not adequately incorporated characteristics unique to the region and its individual countries.
But these social, developmental, environmental, and population health factors, however, affect the spread of the virus and the severity of COVID-19, the researchers explain.
Therefore, they adjusted these factors in their modeling to predict the most likely consequences of the widespread and sustained spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Their estimates indicate that the pandemic may spread more slowly in Africa, with fewer serious cases and deaths than in other parts of the world, such as the United States. USA And Europe, but it is likely to last longer, and possibly for several years.
And without adequate measures to control the spread of the virus, estimates indicate an increased risk of exposure in small countries, with Mauritius likely to be the most vulnerable, while sparsely populated countries such as Niger, Mauritania and Chad are likely to be less vulnerable. .
By head of population, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would likely have the highest proportions of infected people, the calculations suggest.
Among the region’s large countries, Cameroon, South Africa, and Algeria would be most at risk, while Nigeria has the highest number of infections overall, followed by Algeria and South Africa.
In total, about one in four (22%) of the one billion people in the WHO African Region would become infected in the first 12 months. And 37 million may have symptoms, but this number could be as high as 44 million, estimates suggest.
It is estimated that 4.6 million people, but possibly as many as 5.5 million, would have to be admitted to the hospital: 140,000 would have a serious COVID-19 infection and 89,000 would be in critical condition. As a result, about 150,000 lives would be lost, but this number could be as high as 190,000, estimates indicate.
The associated increase in hospital admissions and care needs would divert the already limited resources used to address major health problems in the region, such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and malnutrition, effectively worsening the impact of the coronavirus , the researchers warn.
Some of the hospital admissions would be necessary in areas where access to health services is already poor, particularly for the most disadvantaged, they emphasize.
And they point out that limited testing and diagnostic capacity and poor monitoring and data collection systems, particularly in rural areas, would make it even more difficult to respond effectively.
“These system capacity challenges highlight the need to ensure the success of containment measures to avoid the need for mitigation measures that, while relatively fewer cases are expected in the Region, will be difficult to institute,” they write.
And the success of containment measures, such as contact tracing, isolation, hand washing, and physical distancing, is critical, “since health systems are not designed to mitigate the implications of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 “, they add.
“Countries in the WHO African Region need to expand the capacity of, particularly, their primary hospitals to mitigate the implications of the widespread community spread of SARS-CoV-2,” and that includes basic needs for emergency care. ” they say.
Reference: May 14, 2020, BMJ Global Health.
DOI: 10.1136 / bmjgh-2020-002647
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