Deaths are a residual indicator of the progression of the virus. Reported dead clashes the week of June 28 but have climbed up every week since.
The state of Georgia now leads the nation in the rate of new daily cases per head of the coronavirus, ahead of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, California and Idaho, according to data published Wednesday by the Washington Post. Georgia also ranks fourth in the per capita rate of newly reported deaths, the Post reported.
“Because we are continuing with high levels of business counts in Georgia, we are expected to continue these dire outcomes of hospitalizations and deaths,” Lopman said.
Deaths reported on a given day do not normally occur on that day. They often occur days or potentially weeks earlier.
But the acceleration in new death reports now appears in the state date of the death charts.
During the initial rise of the virus, the seven-day rolling average of deaths in Georgia on April 20 came to 44. During this last rise in deaths, the rolling average of deaths dropped to its previous high on July 27th. As of Thursday, the rolling average for July 27 is 46.
But it is likely that Georgia has not yet reached its peak in this most recent wave of deaths. It takes time to confirm coronavirus deaths, and it is likely that it will take days or potential weeks to fully account for the current rise in deaths, experts said.
‘Red zone ‘
The White House Coronavirus Task Force has identified Georgia as one of 21 states in the “red zone” for severe spread of the coronavirus, according to a report obtained by the New York Times late last month.
On Wednesday, Georgia reported 3,565 net new cases of the virus and the seven-day rolling average in Georgia has exceeded 3,000 cases since July 11th.
Current hospitalizations on Wednesday were 2,865. That figure has dropped since a peak of 3,200 on July 30, but hospital capacity, particularly intensive care beds, remains limited.
The White House Task Force recommends a mandate for the public to wear masks in hot spots for coronavirus and, “optimally,” statewide.
The task force report recommends Georgia close bars, nightclubs and entertainment venues, and limit indoor dining at restaurants to less than 25% capacity. Other recommendations include security testing and tracking of contacts and weekly testing of workers and residents of long-term care facilities.
Kemp has encouraged people to wear face masks, but has balked at a mask mandate. He sued Atlanta over a request for a mask and steps by Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms to reopen plans because they were in conflict with his mandates. Kemp has also opposed re-implementing stricter restrictions on companies.
On Tuesday, Kemp and U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams were on hand to open a surge-testing site in park-ride lots at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport. But given Georgia’s sustained test positivity rate of greater than 10%, experts said testing needs to be expanded, especially in high-risk communities.
“Georgia remains a wonderful nationwide outlier for our actions in the face of this ongoing establishment,” said Drs. Harry J. Heiman, a clinical associate professor at the Georgia State University School of Public Health.
Re-opened schools risk more proliferation
Heiman, Lopman and other independent public health experts have warned that Georgia risks triggering an even bigger spike in cases amid the opening of some school systems and colleges for instruction.
To date, two high schools in Cherokee County have closed for the month of August for instruction in person following confirmed coronavirus infections, and hundreds of students are in quarantine due to potential exposure.
In Paulding County, where photos of packed school hallways went viral, North Paulding High will return next week to intimate personal instruction. The school closed last week, and 35 confirmed infections have been linked to the school, the system said Wednesday.
Infections in children tend to be less severe than in adults, but COVID-19 is not even without risks for the young. DPH in Georgia reported Wednesday that there have been 18,680 cases, 293 hospitalizations and two deaths in children aged 17 and younger.
“Until we control the spread of this infection in the community, it’s not really safe to open schools,” Lopman said. “If a virus is transmitted in the community served by these schools, then the virus will be introduced into the school setting.”
But the virus will not remain within schools and will likely increase its spread in the wider community, Lopman said.
Lopman was part of a research team that compiled a study on the spread of the virus in the early months of Georgia. The study found that children and adults under 60 are more likely to spread the virus to others than older adults.
One measure of the virus spread in communities is to measure the rate of new cases per 100,000 people in a province over a two-week period. A rate of more than 100 cases per 100,000 people is substantially spread, according to Georgia DPH guidelines.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis of DPH data shows all but two of Georgia’s 159 counties currently report rates above the substantial spread threshold. There are 123 counties that rap three or more over that distribution figure, including the metro Atlanta counties of Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry and Rockdale.
Seven rural areas in Georgia – Appling, Bleckley, Charlton, Chattahoochee, Decatur, Jeff Davis and Seminole – report rates of 10 times or greater the substantial spread rate threshold.
Staff writers Kristal Dixon and Ty Tagami contributed to this report.
