The number has been steadily rising, but has fallen from 10 percent to 20 percent in the past two weeks. According to Scorpino estimates, a 20 percent positivity rate could convert up to 50 percent hospital admissions in the next two weeks.
That would compound the already troubling trend: Covid hospitals in Massachusetts have seen a 158 percent increase in recent weeks, according to state data.
Add it all up, and it almost certainly has a meaning: more stringent controls, if not closed, are coming, or should be, By the end of December, according to hospital leaders and pathologists.
“I would be very shocked if more significant rollbacks or closures of the state do not occur by Jan. 1,” said Eric Dixon, chief executive of Umas Memorial Health Care in Worcester.
Baker made one thing clear during the epidemic: he would not allow the hospital system in Massachusetts to be overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients. He calls twice a week with the hospital’s chief executives to get updates about positive rates, covidious hospital hospitalization, ventilator capacity and more. He is aware of their data and its elements, As former health care executive and health secretary in the Weld administration.
With the health care system under stress, Baker has made adjustments: on Monday, he ordered hospitals to cancel some alternative surgeries to free the beds. On Tuesday, it tightened a few restrictions, which would force some businesses to close and others to reduce capacity.
Baker and health care leaders are seeing a flurry of cases related to Thanksgiving gatherings, as it takes two weeks for an infected person to become ill enough to be hospitalized. The danger is that gathering around Christmas brings another upsurge.
Some leading public health experts, mayors and legislators are urging Baker to impose more restrictions, such as temporarily closing indoor dining, casinos and gyms. Together. On Friday, New York Governor Rev. Andrew Cuomo once again banned indoor dining in New York City, effective Monday, as COVID infections are on the rise there.
Boston State Representative John Santiago says, don’t act now, With more commercial closures than necessary, more stringent lockdowns can occur. “The longer you wait, the worse you’ll be in the end,” said Santiago, who is also an emergency room therapist.
Baker’s spokeswoman Lizzie Geto said the governor is always thinking of slowing down the spread of the virus. In addition to the recent bans, in November he ordered an early closing time for rest restaurants rent and urged people to stay home at night.
“The administration constantly analyzes public health data,” he said. “All options are on the table for future action if necessary.”
The timing of the second shutdown, however, could not be worse. Tough rollbacks just before Christmas, retailers and rest restaurants can hurt the holiday season for renters. Meanwhile, unemployment benefits for some are set to expire at the end of the month, and small business owners are likely to spend federal aid from the first stimulus package, and Congress is unable to agree on a deal for a second round of aid.
Like other parts of the country, Massachusetts has been caught in another wave of the virus. A prediction made by Washington Washington University suggests that the infection will be on the rise here by mid-January and that there will be daily deaths by the end of January. The main cause of death in Massachusetts last week, COVID-19, according to Model Dell, is on track to claim an additional 4,000 people by April.
The vaccine, the first dose Of which health care workers will be given in a few days, it is not expected Control the infection rate until late spring, when it becomes available to a wider population. Meanwhile, while they focus on different data points than Scorpio, hospital leaders say they, too, are seeing positive rates coming in at the highest level of their forecast.
In a note to staff on Tuesday, Kevin Tabe, chief executive of Beth Israel Lahe Health, noted a dramatic increase in CVID-19 patients in the state’s second-largest hospital system.
“We have entered a more immediate phase of firefighters,” Tabe wrote. “Even though we are at less than half of our April highs, the trend is alarming that we have seen our numbers double. [COVID-19] Patients over the last 14 days. “
Dixon, CEO of Yumas Memorial, is concerned about handling this second wave based on current hospitalization rates. Before Thanksgiving, the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients increased by about 10 percent per month; Now it’s about 20 percent.
“Boy, if we grow 20 percent in a week between now and February 1, that’s the edge.” Said Dixon. “I don’t know if we can handle that.”
Umass Memorial helped set up a 220-bed Field Hospital Spital at the DCU Center in Worcester and will call on its staff through nutritionists and health care workers at www.umassmemorial related s.com.
Like other hospital officials, Dixon is more concerned about having enough beds, and having enough staff to support the Covid-19 treatment. Its workforce is tired and thin, turning to some virus testing or vaccine delivery. And, not everyone is trained or able to work in a covid unit. Of the approximately 1,000,000 clinical staff, about 200 are unable to work either because they have a virus or are in quarantine due to exposure, he added.
Dixon said Baker is in a position to win more sanctions – balancing saving jobs with saving lives.
“The governor has done a wonderful job,” he said. “I don’t want to get that man’s job right now for all the money in the world.”
Compared to other states, Massachusetts hospitals are in a better position to handle the second wave, said Fiser Ali Mokdad, chief strategy officer at CO Washington University’s Pollution Pollution Health, which helps model its COVID-19 modeling.
Mokdad, who advises governors on the epidemic, said the onset of winter in Massachusetts was responsible for an increase in cases, despite the high mask compliance of about 100 percent and the restricted economy; People spend more time indoors, which increases the risk of close contact with the virus.
“We all went inside the house,” Mokadade said. “The Tuo case is escalating.”
Northeast Professor Scorpio is concerned that the state may no longer have a shutdown but a total shutdown.
“The real concern is There are no options left except downdown, ”said Scorpino.
Victoria McGrath of Globe Employees contributed to this report.
Shirley Leung is a business columnist. It can be reached at [email protected].
