Baseball is back. Or at least he’s planning to be. The MLB 2020 season will be unlike any we’ve seen before, as it will be more of a crazy race than the long and seemingly endless drag towards the finish line that we normally see.
This means that there is a good chance that we will see that some teams have the type of season that we did not expect. Any team can win five games in a row, but only a few are able to consistently win three out of five games on a full schedule. That’s why a 162-game regular season generally kills long-term suitors. We just have to look back last season to see how different things could be in 2020.
In early June last season, when league teams had played 59 to 61 games, the playoffs would have looked like this:
|
American league |
Astros, Twins, Yankees |
Rangers, Rays |
|
National League |
Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies |
Braves, Brewers |
Each of those American League teams made the playoffs, except Texas, which ended 78-84. Instead, it was Oakland who claimed last place after winning 97 games.
In the National League, the Braves and Cardinals won their divisions, but after 60 games last season, the Braves held on to a wild card spot while the Cardinals were completely out. Oh, and the Nationals, you know, the team that won the World Series, were 27-33 after 60 games last season. The Phillies and the Cubs would fade from the picture in the past 100 games, with the Cubs finishing five games from a wild card spot, and the Phillies a perfectly equal 81-81.
A 60-game season gives teams that aren’t as good a better chance of making the playoffs. An organization without the overall depth or talent to win 90 games in a 162-game season can fake it for a couple of months or be lucky. So if there ever was a season to put a little money on some teams that are not World Series favorites, the 2020 season is the one to do.
Fortunately for you, I’ve already been through the process of figuring out which five teams other than the Yankees, Astros, or Dodgers you should try.
All odds are through the William Hill Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay +1800
The Rays never seem to have much respect in the betting markets. My theory is that Tampa Bay is not a team with a huge fan base, so it doesn’t have a solid fan base that is betting to lower its price. But that’s fine with me because it allows the rest of us to take advantage. The first thing any team must do to win the World Series is to make it to the postseason. Well, the Rays did that in 2019, winning 96 games. It was their first time to reach the postseason since 2013, but in 2018 they won 90 games. That team was the first since the 2013 Texas Rangers to win 90 games and miss the playoffs. The last team that happened to them before was the Tampa Bay Rays 2012. While the Rays may not have national name recognition, they are a good team with an excellent shot at the playoffs. Therefore, getting 18-1 over them to win everything provides something of value.
Cleveland +2500
Indians are obvious here, and the Twins almost made the list at +1500 as well. If you want to shoot both of them, I won’t judge you. Last season was the first time Cleveland missed the postseason since 2015, despite the team winning 93 games (a lot of it last year!). I know there are some changes to the roster, both Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber are gone, but the Indians can still play an AL Central schedule. That means 20 games, a full third of their schedule, against the Royals and Tigers, two teams that most hope to finish in the bottom of the league. There are also 10 games against the White Sox, a team that many hope to improve on, but a team that has not had a winning season since 2012. The odds are high that at least one of the two American League slot machines will go to a AL Central team. That makes both Cleveland and Minnesota attractive, but at 25-1, passing a shot over Cleveland is impossible.
Oakland +2500
The Athletics have won 97 games in each of the past two seasons and made the playoffs both times. However, based on the odds at William Hill, eight other teams have a better chance of winning it all. Now, there is some sound logic behind this. The Athletics play in the same division as the Houston Astros, so they have only managed one wild card spot in the past two seasons despite winning 97 games in each. Plus, with the schedule as it is this season, they’ll also have to play against the Dodgers. So I understand why the odds are where they are, but I still think they are off, which is too reasonable a price to pass up.
Milwaukee +4000
I feel good about the chances that the three teams I’ve already passed will make the playoffs in a 162-game season. The Brewers are the first team I’m not sure I have that much confidence in a full roster. However, I think they are a good enough team to face here 40-1. Milwaukee won the National League Central in 2018 and was one game away from reaching the World Series. Last season, the team made the playoffs as a wild card despite losing Christian Yelich during the last three weeks of the season. I think the Brewers are helped in this format that they use their bullpen a lot. The Milwaukee ballpoint pen finished fifth in MLB in innings released last season (Tampa finished first), and in a 60-game season, with bigger rosters, teams that rely on their bullpens can use them a little more liberally than they already do. they were. That could give Milwaukee an edge over the rest of the National League Central in a short season, so I love the value here.
San Diego +5000
I wouldn’t bet on the Padres to win it in a 162-game season. Okay, maybe I would spray them a little bit because there’s a high ceiling here given the talent pool, but I wouldn’t do it expecting anything in return. But in a 60 game race? With a 50-1 probability? Yes, give me a piece of the Padres. I know I realistically expect a wild place because it’s hard to imagine anyone other than the Dodgers winning the NL West. But, as I mentioned, if there was ever a season to expect the unexpected, this is the time. With these odds, the Padres only need to win it all 1.96% of the time. I think it is within our range of possible outcomes here. While he is not more likely to win, the Padres are more valuable at this price than any other team in baseball.
