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Champions League Final Preview: PSG vs. Bayern Munich
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We are finally here. It took us a lot longer than originally planned, but we arrived at our destination. Every Sunday, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will play in the UEFA Champions League final. It’s a bittersweet moment. I’m excited to see the final between two of the best clubs in the world, with some of the greatest players in the world.
But I also have very hot bets from Champions League matches this year, and I do not want that to come to an end!
So how can I take advantage of both the excitement and not wanting it to end? Easy! Instead of making three picks for the match like I did, I will make five. When the Champions League comes to an end, we’ll go out with a pinch, baby.
- Odds: Bayern Munich +102; Draw +310; Paris Saint-Germain +220 (via William Hill Sportsbook)
Bayern Munich (+103)
Liverpool fans, if you are reading this, do me a favor and kick back to the next paragraph. OK, now that they are gone, I can tell you that Bayern Munich is the best team in the world. They have been all season. I know Liverpool destroyed the Premier League, and it was incredible, but Bayern are still the better team. For proof of this fact, Bayern Munich are still playing in the Champions League, while Liverpool went out to an Atletico Madrid side who finished a distant third in La Liga.
Welcome back, Liverpool fans. However, as I said, Bayern Munich are pretty good. They’re been the team I’d spent the whole time trying to win this tournament, and now that they’ve reached the final, it’s strange to be on their toes now.
Well, this is not to say I’m overconfident. PSG are dangerous. In fact, Liverpool fans, skip the rest of this section as well. However, PSG has the best attacking trio in the world. Better than the trio of Liverpool, and better than the trio where they have to deal with this whole game. That alone makes it a very dangerous side against anyone.
But Bayern is the full team. I have more confidence in operating as a whole than I do in PSG, and that’s why I’m taking Die Die Roten to win and lift the Champions League trophy for the third time, and only since 2013.
About 3.5 (+100)
I find this play more than anything else, honestly. A big reason both teams are here is that they have been defensive, but my instincts tell me that we will see a high-scoring affair in the final. There’s just too much offensive talent on the field in this game to not be.
While Bayern went 3-0 up 3-0 at half-time, we can not ignore that Lyon had some juicy chances to score and did not convert. The same can be said of PSG in matches against Leipzig and Atalanta. If both teams allow the same kind of chances against each other in this match, they will pay the price for it.
In proportion, I can not pass this play on.
Goal to score between 31st minute and half time (+130)
That we have established that I believe there will be a lot of goals in this game, but when are they likely to come? Now, looking at how these two sides have played this season, the final 15 minutes for the half certainly looks like a great bet.
In Bayern matches this season, 19.6% of the total goals (either by Bayern or against) came in this window. For PSG, it is 19.3%. No other 15-minute stretch has seen more goals for either side, so this is an excellent value game.
Robert Lewandowski scores (-167)
This is obvious. I expect a lot of goals to be scored, and Bayern to win the match. Do you see a lot of scenarios that play out where these two things happen, and Robert Lewandowski is not one of the players scoring a goal? I know Serge Gnabry has been the hot hand (or foot?) Lately, but Bobby Lew is still Bobby Lew. He averaged 3.07 shots on goal per 90 minutes in the Champions League, and he converted 53.5% of his shots on goal. Just figure it out.
Neymar to score (+125)
I can ‘t lose you, Neymar. I have taken Neymar to score in the last two games of PSG just to see how he breaks my heart several times. Neymar’s got nine shots in those two games and had a xG of 1.7 at that time. They have not just been wild efforts! They got great scoring chances!
And he missed them all. He’s hit some posts or just gone wide. There was even a moment against Leipzig when Neymar and Kylian Mbappe had a two-on-one break, resulting in a PSG goal roughly 150% of the time. But Mbappe’s pass to Neymar outside the penalty area was just a touch behind him, and Neymar slipped by trying to try to make the field.
I’m almost boss.
Well, I’m going back to the source here. There is simply no way that Neymar will continue to get these opportunities and not convert any of them. The law of probability is the law!
Also full revelation, if I did not bet this, he would score a hat trick, so at least I save myself the hearts of seeing that happen and I get nothing for it.
Sometimes you have to bet with your heart in mind.
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