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The world is poorly prepared for the global collapse of born children, which will have an “astonishing” impact on societies, researchers say.
Falling fertility rates mean that almost all countries could have reduced populations by the end of the century.
And 23 nations, including Spain and Japan, are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.
Counties will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as born.
What’s going on?
The fertility rate (the average number of children a woman gives birth to) is decreasing.
If the number falls below about 2.1, then the population size begins to drop.
In 1950, women had an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime.
Researchers from the University of Washington Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment showed that the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017, and their study, published in The Lancet, projects to drop below 1.7 for 2100.
As a result, researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before dropping to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
“That is quite important; most of the world is in transition towards the natural decline of the population,” researcher Professor Christopher Murray told the BBC.
“I think it is incredibly difficult to think this and recognize how great this is; it is extraordinary, we will have to reorganize societies.”
Why are fertility rates falling?
It has nothing to do with sperm count or the usual things that come to mind when talking about fertility.
Instead, it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as increased access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.
In many ways, declining fertility rates is a success story.
Which countries will be the most affected?
Japan’s population is projected to decline from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.
Italy is expected to experience an equally dramatic demographic collapse of 61 million to 28 million in the same time period.
They are two of the 23 countries, which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea, and their population is expected to shrink by more than half.
“That is amazing,” Professor Christopher Murray told me.
China, currently the world’s most populous nation, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place.
The UK is forecast to peak at 75 million by 2063, and to drop to 71 million by 2100.
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However, this will be a truly global problem, with 183 out of 195 countries having a fertility rate below the replacement level.
Why is this a problem?
You may think this is great for the environment. A smaller population would reduce carbon emissions and deforestation from agricultural land.
“That would be true, except for the inverted age structure (more seniors than youth) and all the negatively uniform consequences of an inverted age structure,” says Professor Murray.
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The world faces a change from young to old
The study projects:
- The number of children under five will drop from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100.
- The number of people over 80 will increase from 141 million in 2017 to 866 million in 2100.
Professor Murray adds: “It will create a huge social change. It worries me because I have an eight-year-old daughter and I wonder what the world will be like.”
Who pays taxes in a world of massive age? Who pays for medical care for the elderly? Who cares for the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?
“We need a soft landing,” argues Professor Murray.
Is there any solution?
Countries, including the United Kingdom, have used migration to increase their populations and compensate for falling fertility rates.
However, this is no longer the answer once the population of almost all countries is shrinking.
“We will move from the period when it is an option to open borders, or not, to open competition for migrants, since there will not be enough,” argues Professor Murray.
Some countries have tried policies such as improved maternity and paternity leave, free child care, financial incentives and additional work rights, but there is no clear answer.
Sweden has increased its fertility rate from 1.7 to 1.9, but other countries that have made a significant effort to tackle the “baby bust” have struggled. Singapore still has a fertility rate of around 1.3.
Professor Murray says: “I find that people laugh; they cannot imagine that it is true, they believe that women will simply decide to have more children.”
“If you can not [find a solution] then finally the species disappears, but that is a few centuries away. “
- How are countries fighting against falling birth rates?
The researchers caution against undoing progress in women’s education and access to contraception.
Professor Stein Emil Vollset said: “Responding to population decline is likely to become a primary political concern in many nations, but should not compromise efforts to improve women’s reproductive health or progress in women’s rights. women”.
How about Africa?
The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to triple in size to more than three billion people by 2100.
And the study says that Nigeria will become the second largest country in the world, with a population of 791 million.
Professor Murray says: “We will have many more people of African descent in many more countries as we go through this.”
“Global recognition of the challenges around racism will be even more critical if there are large numbers of people of African descent in many countries.”
Why is the fertility rate threshold 2.1?
You might think that the number should be 2.0: two parents have two children, so the population remains the same size.
But even with the best medical care, not all children survive to adulthood. Also, babies are becoming more likely to be male. It means that the replacement figure is 2.1 in developed countries.
Nations with higher infant mortality also need a higher fertility rate.
What do the experts say?
Professor Ibrahim Abubakar of University College London (UCL) said: “If these predictions are even half accurate, migration will become a necessity for all nations and not an option.
“To be successful we need a fundamental rethinking of global politics.
“The distribution of working-age populations will be crucial for humanity to prosper or wither away.”
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